ANDREW CYR
<Sports Editor>
Canadian hockey fans had more to cheer about than usual in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 NHL season, as four Canadian teams made the playoffs for the first time in seven years. The question going into this full-length 2013-14 edition of the NHL season is whether this newfound success will continue for Canadian franchises. The division realignment will certainly have an impact on this question, as Ottawa, Toronto, and Montreal will now have to contend with the consistently competitive Detroit Red Wings for a playoff spot in the revamped Atlantic. Similarly, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Calgary will have to pave a route to the playoffs through sunny California, as they join Los Angeles and San Jose in the new Pacific Division. Meanwhile, while the realignment was approved largely for the benefit of the Winnipeg Jets, they will be moving from a cushy Southeast Division to the fierce Central. How will it all shake out? To save you from going through the painstaking process of watching actual games and following the standings throughout the year, I have performed the analysis necessary to accurately predict the fortunes of each of Canada’s NHL clubs.
Ottawa Senators
If any Canadian franchise can challenge the Boston Bruins, and ward off newcomer Detroit, in the Atlantic division, it is the Ottawa Senators. The Senators lost their three most important players to injury for most of the season last year and still managed to make the playoffs. While many fans lament the departure of Daniel Alfredsson to Detroit, there is no question that newly acquired Bobby Ryan represents an upgrade on their top line. There would be no sweeter revenge for those feeling spurned by Alfredsson’s departure than for the Senators to finish ahead of the Wings in the final standings. If their roster can stay healthy, they have the potential to accomplish this goal.
Biggest strengths: Balanced scoring and goaltending
Biggest weaknesses: Inexperience and health
Projected finish: 2nd in the Atlantic Division
Montreal Canadiens
The Habs may have shocked even their own fans by winning the Northeast Division and making the playoffs as the Eastern Conference’s 2nd seed in 2012-13. The youth movement in Montreal, fueled by super-rookies Alex Galenchyuk and Brendan Gallagher, allowed the Canadiens to overachieve last year. They will surprise no one, however, this season, and will face intense competition in the new Atlantic division. Unless goaltender Carey Price delivers a Vezina-caliber season, it is unlikely that the Canadiens will repeat as division champions. Instead, they will battle it out for one of the East’s final playoff spots, and will most likely come up short.
Biggest strengths: Goaltending
Biggest Weaknesses: Lack of size
Projected finish: 6th in the Atlantic Division
Toronto Maple Leafs
For Leafs fans, memories are still fresh of the stunning 3rd period collapse that allowed the Boston Bruins to defeat the Leafs in the first round of last season’s playoffs. The Bruins would eventually advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Many fans believe that it should have been the Leafs taking on the Blackhawks in that series, but the truth is that the Leafs have their work cut out from them to simply return to the playoffs in their new division. Contrary to popular belief, the Leafs received excellent goaltending last year – James Reimer’s .924 save percentage was the highest in franchise history – and Leafs fans are hoping that the tandem of Reimer and Jonathan Bernier can build on this success. David Clarkson completes a strong set of top-six forwards, but there are question marks further down the depth chart and on the blueline. The playoff race is likely to come right down to the wire for the Leafs.
Biggest strengths: Solid top six forwards and goaltending
Biggest weaknesses: Lack of depth
Projected finish: 4th in the Atlantic Division
Winnipeg Jets
While most Jets fans were simply happy to have an NHL team back in Winnipeg for the past two seasons, the franchise is growing desperate to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2006-07 season. This goal was made more difficult, however, due to divisional realignment which will place the Jets in a division with the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks, among other strong clubs. The Jets have demonstrated improvement in their time in Winnipeg, and the top line of Andrew Ladd, Brian Little, and Blake Wheeler has evolved into an effective offensive unit. However, secondary scoring remains a major problem for the Jets, as does team defense. The team added sniper Devin Setoguchi via trade in an attempt to increase scoring, and will rely on rookies Mark Schiefele and Jacob Trouba to make an impact. However, the Jets are likely a year or two away from capturing a playoff spot in their new division.
Biggest strengths: Top line scoring
Biggest weaknesses: Secondary scoring and goaltending
Projected finish: 5th in the Central Division
Calgary Flames
The Flames commenced a long overdue rebuild in 2012-13 when they traded away the face of the franchise, Jarome Iginla. The team ended up finishing 13th in the Western Conference and drafted Sean Monahan to lead a group of young forwards back into the playoff picture. The forward corps is dotted with veterans, but will rely on contributions from young players like Sven Baertschi and Mikael Backlund in order to win games. The blueline features a bit more experience, but does not inspire confidence. The Flames are unlikely to be competitive in 2013-14 and anything better than a bottom four finish in the league would be considered overachieving.
Biggest strengths: None evident
Biggest weaknesses: Offense, defense, and goaltending
Projected finish: 7th in the Pacific Division
Edmonton Oilers
After three consecutive years of picking first overall in the NHL entry draft, the Edmonton Oilers finally showed some modest improvement in 2013-14. The Oilers were in the playoff conversation for much of the year, but faded badly down the stretch and ended up towards the bottom of the Western Conference. This year, the Oilers will look to build on their limited success and make the leap into the realm of true playoff contenders. Leading the charge on offense will be their youth contingent of Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jordan Eberle. Defense remains an area of concern, but last year’s addition of Justin Schultz was a step in the right direction. This may be the year that the Oilers finally make the leap.
Biggest strengths: Top-end offensive talent
Biggest weaknesses: Defense and goaltending
Projected Finish: 3rd in the Pacific Division
Vancouver Canucks
After making it to the Stanley Cup Final in 2011, it appears the window of opportunity is closing for the Canucks. The Canucks have lost 8 of their past 9 playoff games, leading the franchise to fire coach Alain Vigneault and hire John Tortorella to replace him. Tortorella will bring a more hard-nosed style to the Canucks, hoping to shed their reputation as a “soft” team. Despite recent setbacks, the fact remains that the Canucks have one of the most deep and talented rosters in the NHL. Canucks fans hope the Sedins can return to an elite level of offensive production and that they can get a full season out of a healthy Ryan Kesler. On the back end, the Canucks boast perhaps the deepest defense corps in the NHL. After attempting to deal goaltending Roberto Luongo for months, the Canucks finally shipped goaltender Cory Schneider to the Devils instead. While many fans would have preferred to keep Schneider for the long-term, Luongo remains an elite NHL goaltender.
Biggest strengths: Defensive depth and goaltending
Biggest weaknesses: Lack of physical play
Projected finish: 2nd in the Pacific Division
Projected Standings:
|
East |
West |
||
|
Metropolitan |
Atlantic |
Central |
Pacific |
| Pittsburgh | Boston | Chicago | Los Angeles |
| NY Rangers | Ottawa | St. Louis | Vancouver |
| Washington | Detroit | Dallas | Edmonton |
| Philadelphia | Toronto | Winnipeg | San Jose |
| NY Islanders | Tampa Bay | Minnesota | Anaheim |
| Carolina | Montreal | Colorado | Phoenix |
| Columbus | Buffalo | Nashville | Calgary |
| New Jersey | Florida | ||