Part Three of Three
If the Leafs are serious about changing their fortune, management needs to endure a painful full-scale rebuild. I am not suggesting that the Leafs should tank intentionally (particularly since finishing last will not ensure getting the 1st overall selection with the implementation of the draft lottery); rather, I am preaching that the organization should be patient and focus on drafting young talent and invest in player development, especially given that the NHL does not have a cap on how much a team can spend in this area (meaning that the team can make use of its financial resources and hire many more top scouts than small market teams so as to identify talents at the amateur-level that the franchise should pay close attention to and/or possibly draft down the road). Comprehensive scouting reports can then be composed for each prospective draftee.
Generational talents (e.g., Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and Sidney Crosby) are obvious targets that all scouting departments should be able to identify with relative ease given that the skill levels of these special players are head and shoulders above the level of competition (e.g., Gretzky had seventy goals and 112 assists for a total of 182 points in sixty-four games for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds; Lemieux had 133 goals and 149 assists for a total of 282 points in seventy games for the Laval Voisions in the 1983-1984 season; Crosby had sixty-six goals and 102 assists for a total of 168 points in sixty-two games for the Rimouski Oceanic in the 2004-2005 season).
Where elite-scouting pays off is the ability to unearth hidden gems or the diamonds-in-the-rough (e.g., the ability to draft a top-end player whom other teams have passed on in the late rounds of NHL Entry Drafts). The Detroit Red Wings is the model organization in this regard as the team successfully drafted Nicklas Lidstrom (with the fifty-third overall pick in the third round of the 1989 NHL Entry Draft), Pavel Datsyuk (with the 171st overall pick in the sixth round of the 1998 NHL Entry Draft, Henrik Zetterberg (with the 210th overall pick in the seventh round of the 1999 NHL Entry Draft), and Johan Franzén (with the ninety-seventh overall pick in the third round of the 2004 NHL Entry Draft). These core players ended up bringing four Stanley Cups to the Motor City within a span of eleven years from 1997-2008.
This means that the Leafs could be basement dwellers for years to come, but the reward of losing royally is that the team will be rewarded with top draft picks in future NHL Entry Drafts. Recent history suggests that this is the “right” way to build championship teams. For example, the Pittsburgh Penguins won the 2009 Stanley Cup by drafting their core with high draft picks (Starting Goaltender Marc-André Fleury went first overall in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft; Franchise Centre Evgeni Malkin went second overall in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft; the face of the NHL, Sidney Crosby, who recently served as captain of team Canada in the 2014 Sochi Olympics, went first overall in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft, and strong two-way centre Jordan Staal, went second overall in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft). The Chicago Blackhawks won the cup in 2010 and again in 2013 in similar fashion (as team captain Jonathan Toews went third overall in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft and dynamic winger Patrick Kane went first overall in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft). The Edmonton Oilers have yet to win but their future is bright as their core is now intact (left winger Taylor Hall went first overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, first-line centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins went first overall in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, and elite winger Nail Yakupov went first overall in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft). Looking back, the Leafs could have had first-line centre Tyler Seguin and top-pairing defenseman Dougie Hamilton (drafted second overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft and ninth overall in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft by the Boston Bruins) but regrettably, then Leaf General Manger Brian Burke impatiently traded these two picks along with a second round pick in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft in the infamous Phil Kessel deal so the Leafs are still searching for a legitimate first-line centre and a stud defenseman as we speak.
Why do the Leafs need to draft and develop their own elite talent? Simply put, no teams will trade such high-demand commodities to rivals, nor will generational players (especially if they are young and still very much in their prime) ever make it to unrestricted free agency given that teams will lock up their franchise player(s) to long-term contracts. For example, before the new rules came into effect, the Penguins re-signed Crosby to a twelve-year contract extension on July 1, 2012. The team then promptly re-signed its other star Malkin to an eight-year contract extension on June 13, 2013. Similarly, the Blackhawks re-signed the faces of their respective franchises, Toews (on July 9, 2014) and Kane (also on July 9, 2014), to eight-year contract extensions. Even the Leafs, under the watchful eye of General Manager Dave Nonis, resigned Kessel, the team’s best player, to an eight-year contract extension on October 1, 2013.
In spite of their repeated mistakes, Leafs Nation does see light at the end of the tunnel. The appointment of Brendan Shanahan as team President (a hockey executive with high intelligence and tremendous hockey sense who I put in the same category as Steve Yzerman) and the recent hiring of Kyle Dubas as Assistant GM show a commitment on the part of Leafs management to take hockey analytics seriously, which is a prerequisite to successful player drafting and development in this age of the game. The timing could not have been more perfect as Connor McDavid is the consensus first overall pick (with Jack Eichel most likely being the second overall pick) in the upcoming 2015 NHL Entry Draft.