How did it come about, what is it doing, and where is it heading?
Islamic State (IS) introduced itself to the Western world this summer through the infamous beheading videos. The official name for the group is the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the Arab acronym of Da’ish, or the self-termed IS). It is a Sunni caliphate, comprised of international extremists waging a “jihad” against all those who oppose it. The group controls territory in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and the Sinai Peninsula. It has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the European Union, the UK, US, Australia, Canada, Turkey, and the UAE, and accused by Amnesty International of committing grave human rights abuses including ethnic cleansing. Groups located outside territories currently claimed by IS have self-identified as supporting them or have pledged allegiance, including Boko Haram, the Iraqi Ba’ath Party (the former ruling party of the country), and others hailing from Pakistan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, Libya, Tunisia, and Gaza.
The group originated in Jordan in 1999, becoming a decentralized network during the Iraqi insurgency in which foreign fighters were widely thought to play a key role. In 2004, it became al-Qaeda in Iraq, taking part in attacking coalition forces and Iraqi security forces after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. After merging with other groups, the Islamic State of Iraq was born in 2006. After a decline due to its aggressiveness, in 2013, the group changed its name to ISIS, growing under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. However, given its violent methods, including suicide attacks on civilian targets and the widespread killing of prisoners during its involvement in Iraq and the Syrian Civil War, al-Qaeda disowned ISIS in February 2014, partially because of the latter’s attempt to bring the al-Nusra Front into its sphere of influence, stating “al-Qaeda does not have an organizational relationship with [ISIS] and is not the group responsible for their actions.” In June, IS proclaimed itself a worldwide caliphate – a single theocratic one-world government to overthrow the world’s current political systems.
The beheadings which first captivated the West included those of James Foley (an American freelance war correspondent during the Syrian Civil War), up to seventy-five Syrian soldiers from a captured base, Steven Sotloff (a journalist for TIME magazine and the Jerusalem Post), David Haines (an aid worker assessing a refugee camp near the Turkish border), Hervé Gourdel (a French mountaineering guide in Algeria), and Alan Henning (a British humanitarian aid worker). These beheadings follow the policy espoused by ISIL spokesman Abu Mohammad al-Adnani to attack citizens of countries participating in the US-led coalition against the Islamic State.
One name in particular has been closely tied with the beheadings – that of Jihadi John, a member of the so-called Beatles (a terrorist cell within ISIS). He is alleged to be a UK national who appears in the videos speaking English with an British accent, and is responsible for the actual executions. Along with other Beatles, he guarded Western hostages while handling communications with their families. He was identified by the FBI in September, but his name has yet to be released publicly. British PM David Cameron has ordered MI5, MI6, and GCHQ to track and capture him.
The group’s leaders portray themselves as akin to seventh century warriors thundering forth on horseback to expand their religious empire by sword. They call their car bombs “steeds” and their drivers the “death admirers, the knights of martyrdom.” But in many respect, they have less in common with medieval warriors and more with modern bureaucrats. As one reporter put it, “after decades, we may have arrived at the ultimate professionalization of terror.” During a routine January 2007 patrol in Anbar province, a unit of US marines stumbled on a cache of documents including financial records, payrolls, administrative records, and other details of fund flows in and out of a single local cell then calling itself “Islamic State of Iraq.”
Shortly after, Iraqi militiamen working with the US stormed a home, finding a computer drive holding ledgers with 1200 files detailing the finances and operations of provincial managers overseeing the cell, as well as others like it. An analysis conducted by a US Department of Defense funded think tank in 2010 revealed that the group is decentralized, organized, and run on a “multidivisional hierarchy form” of management, similar to General Motors. Essentially, semiautonomous divisions ordered largely around geography operate without the need for day-to-day supervision, while top leaders focus on strategy and overall performance. The documents captured showed that cells carrying out the group’s daily functions included units such as finance, intelligence, medical, media, logistics, and even a mail division. The hard drive seems to have come from a divisional auditor, showcasing strict accounting procedures.
Previously, proceeds came from the sale of stolen goods (a period was noted in which spoils revenue surged, suggesting leaders specifically asked for more plunder when more cash was demanded) and via local cells controlling smuggling routes and extorting taxes. Money was sent to field subunits, bolstering operations at critical times, with surpluses sent to the national treasury. These days, ISIS makes $2-3 million a day in oil sales, which are from captured oilfields in Iraq and Syria, and sold on the black market at about half the world price, with buyers in Jordan, Turkey, Syria, and Iran. This backbone to the IS economy is a worrying trend in their quest for economic self-sufficiency.
Other sources of revenue include taxes collected from the captive population, seized property from people IS has killed or forced to flee (including bank accounts), kidnapping ransoms (which have generated $20 million already), private donations from across the Persian Gulf, and the plundering of antiquities which go towards paying for fighters and sustainment the roughly eight million people IS has living in its territories. According to the head of Kurdish intelligence, up to $6 million in IS revenue is generated daily. The nature of these revenue streams makes it challenging for law enforcement officials in the West to stop the in-flow of money. Last week, plans were even announced to mint a series of gold, silver, and copper coins for its own currency called Islamic dinars, because they would be “far removed from the tyrannical monetary system that was imposed on the Muslims and was a reason for their enslavement and impoverishment.”
After a merger brought al-Baghdadi to ISIS, publicly issued reports and statements were released showing eighteen semi-autonomous provincial divisions in 2010. Precise timing and resources for attacks is left in the hands of local commanders and detailed data is compiled on the performance and daily operation of these semi-autonomous units. The latest report is 410 pages, and includes metrics from 7681 operations in Iraq in 2013, listing assassinations (doubling in 2013 to 1,083), and detonations of roadside bombs or other IEDs (4,465 in 2013). Experts estimate that because of IS’ rapid expansion, its leaders focus on recruiting unit commanders who can be trusted. Many have been freed from prisons (including death row inmates) or brought in from Jihadi networks through a “mergers and acquisitions strategy.”
A large part for the condemnation from the West and organizations such as Amnesty International came as a result of the Mosul offensive on Iraq’s second largest city. In June 2014, ISIL attacked the historic city, with forces numbering approximately 1500, while Iraqi forces were at least fifteen times stronger. As the militants advanced, they seized military vehicles and weapons, and hung, crucified, and burned soldiers. After a lack of coordination by the Iraqi forces and bitter fighting, most of the defenders of the city, including the army and police, either deserted or defected. Several facilities, including Mosul International Airport, which had served as a hub for the US military in the region were captured. Helicopters, jet fighters, seven hundred Humvees, and even tanks were seized by ISIS. After the takeover of the local prison, ISIL separated and removed the Sunni inmates (and freed thousands of other Sunni prisoners who are likely to join the insurgency), while the remaining 670 prisoners were executed. In July, a deadline was issued by ISIS to either convert to Islam, pay tax, leave, or be killed. As a result, Christians abandoned the historic Christian city, which contains the tombs of several Old Testament prophets. The tomb of Jonah was later destroyed, as was a statute of the Virgin Mary and an 1800 year old church. For the first time in Iraqi history, the city of Mosul was empty of Christians. The price of tomatoes has risen six- fold, the price of kerosene three-fold, and electricity is provided for an average of two hours every four days, with the previous rations handled by the Iraqi government no longer being provided.
Elsewhere, IS is holding thousands of people hostage inside ISIS territory, having taken members of the Yazidi minority sect, with estimates of 2500 to seven thousand captives. Prospects for a rescue are bleak. The group also is reviving the practice of slavery . The October edition of their English publication, Dabiq, includes an argument for the practice, as well as accounts of how Yazidi women were distributed amongst the fighters as a kind of tax. Enslaved families are now sold by the IS soldiers. The organization warns “weak-minded” followers that “enslaving the families of the [infidels] and taking their women as concubines is a firmly established aspect of the Shariah” and “[i]f one were to deny or mock [it], he would be denying or mocking the verses of the Quran.” Women, including young girls, are sold at slave markets, raped, forced to marry, or imprisoned in the homes of fighters. Families are often told to choose between death and conversion. Human Rights Watch released a report warning that the abduction and abuse of Yazidi civilians may amount to crimes against humanity.
According to the Iraqi government, since June, IS has controlled a vast compound in Iraq containing 2,500 rusting chemical weapons rockets containing Sarin, which were only partially destroyed by the US in the 1991 Gulf War. There was also about 180 tons of sodium cyanide, a very toxic chemical, at the facility. Assurances were made by US Defense Department spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby, who said that according to the US’ best understanding, such material is quite old and unlikely to be fit for use.
In July, Iraq followed up its previous warning to say that IS have seized nearly forty kilograms of nuclear materials (namely uranium) for scientific research. But the UN atomic agency (IAEA) said the material was “low grade” and did not pose a significant security risk. While two of the three fighter jets in the IS possession were allegedly destroyed by the Syrian air force in October, the risk of future IS capture of jets and aircraft looms large. MiGs are already in use, with former Iraqi pilots training ISIS members to fly the jets. As well, while US-led airstrikes on IS militants have destroyed four tanks and damaged another, there is danger that these will be replaced by other equipment captured in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere.
However, perhaps the greatest threat is the recruitment of foreign fighters, and the encouragement of home-grown terror. According to an October report released by the UN, approximately fifteen thousand foreign Jihadists from more than eighty countries have joined the group since June, and three thousand foreign fighters have been recruited since September. Recruits are reached through a network of known jihadi supporters who act as scouts, as well as through social media. According to experts, the majority of recruits are men who have no prior connection to Syria and are new to Islam. The countries with some of the highest proportions of recruits (adjusted for population size) are Belgium, Sweden, Jordan, and Tunisia.
One of the explanations offered for high recruitment figures is that ISIS is extremely welcoming to foreigners (as much of the leaders are foreigners themselves), and that recruitment campaigns on social media are designed and produced by Western members to be more appealing. Such campaigns appeal to those that feel restless or purposeless, and allow them to make a difference, belong, and meet other foreigners from around the world. Matthew Levitt, director of counter-terrorism at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, writes that videos showing IS “capturing territory, establishing states, and beheading enemies…show they are the sexiest jihadi group on the block.”
In November, ISIS claimed that the two attacks against Canadians in Quebec and Ottawa were the “direct result” of its call for violence in countries that had joined the international military campaign against the terror group. As Dabiq put it: “By calling on Muslims around the world to rise up in arms, the sheikh launched attacks in Canada, America and Australia…[with] nothing more than words and a shared belief in the act of worship that is jihad.” Both Couture-Rouleau and Zehaf-Bibeau were individually mentioned in the report; they were recent converts to Islam and had troubled personal lives, making them more susceptible to IS’ influence.
Given all of the above, and especially following Jihadi John’s brazen videos, America is leading a global coalition seeking to eradicate IS, alongside a multinational humanitarian effort. Canadian F-18s have also participated in the campaign, which mostly includes aerial bombings using jets and drones. Hundreds of ISIS fighters have been killed so far. Both the US and the UK have vowed to take revenge following the beheadings, with other countries like France, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Spain Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain joining. Some of these countries have sent troops, while others have sent equipment. Still, these countries are divided: some will only participate in Iraq, while others will only participate in Syria. This is somewhat dangerous since ISIS itself does not recognize these borders, which could lead to aborted attacks if an imaginary border is crossed. Muslims around the world have also condemned the acts of ISIS. Even Iran and Hezbollah are acting against ISIS, and were indeed the first ones to do so.