A ranking of some Liberal campaign promises
Justin Trudeau will have been sworn in as the twenty-third prime minister on 4 November, so it’s probably a good time to stop staring into his sweltering gaze and take a look at some of the Liberal campaign promises made throughout that extra-long campaign. Were the promises sincere, or simply cheap talk in an attempt to win an election? Although I have no way of knowing, here are my thoughts on how some social and international campaign issues will play out. Note: I am purposely staying away from guessing on Trudeau’s vague promises about amending Bill C-51, which I personally suspect will be left to the courts.
Using a very sophisticated scale of 1-10 (1 = don’t hold your breath, 10 = it’s already happened), I’ve ranked what I think is the likelihood of these promises being kept by the Liberal government.
Electing a half-female cabinet
Likelihood: 10.
Let’s start off with an easy one that will be decided before this newspaper hits stands. Trudeau said during his campaign, and almost immediately after winning the election, that he is planning on appointing a cabinet with gender balance, a first for the federal government. This is one of the first moves that people will see from Trudeau, so he will be certain to make it happen. It’s a small step for a parliament that is less than thirty percent female, but a welcome step nonetheless. Bonus points if one of the female MPs becomes finance minister, which would represent another federal first.
Inquiry into missing and murdered indigenous women
Likelihood: 9 (with some heavy skepticism as to its implementation).
At least 1,200 indigenous women have gone missing or been murdered in a thirty year span in Canada. Despite a multitude of voices calling for a national inquiry, from provincial leaders to international human rights groups, the previous Conservative government refused to view this as a systemic problem, saying that the individual incidents should be treated as crimes and nothing more. The government’s evasiveness on this issue is likely to end, as from all accounts it seems that Trudeau will realize an inquiry into this national tragedy in the near future. But there is still plenty to be concerned about. What form will it take? How effective will it be? Will the voices of family members and First Nations peoples be heard, and will they be able to play an active role? Will the government actually adapt any of the recommendations put forward by the inquiry?
Ending airstrikes in Syria and Iraq
Likelihood: 6.
To be fair, Justin Trudeau does seem fairly committed to this issue, as one of the first things he did as Prime Minister Elect was to call President Obama and confirm his intention to withdraw the six Canadian fighter jets from the US-led mission. However, the US has made it clear that they are not on board with this plan, and would like Canada to continue its efforts in Syria and Iraq. Since the Liberals have also promised to warm up relations between the US and Canada, this will be one of the first big challenges for Trudeau, and it will be interesting to see what happens. I suspect that the jets will eventually be withdrawn, but it will take much longer than expected.
Accepting 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of the year
Likelihood: 1.
One of Trudeau’s more ambitious promises has the Canadian government welcoming 25,000 Syrian refugees into Canada by the end of 2015. From what I’ve read, although many are happy that the Liberals have pledged to be more proactive in dealing with the Syrian crisis, most refugee settlement groups and advocates seem to think that the time-frame is a bit too rushed, and perhaps even unwise. While speed is certainly of the essence in this matter, as more and more people are dying each day, there are many factors to consider when attempting moving a large number of people into a country. Some of the concerns that have arisen: not enough adequate housing (especially long-term), a lack of health-care resources, including trauma support services and mental health centres, lack of language centres, and processing delays. While I sincerely hope that Trudeau does keep his promise to welcome more refugees into Canada, 25,000 by the end of the year seems like a number that will be impossible to implement.
Legalizing and regulating marijuana
Likelihood: 4.
Don’t take out your bongs just yet: Trudeau’s plan to legalize and regulate the sale of marijuana will be challenging and take a long time to implement. Since Trudeau said that he would tackle this issue “right away,” I suspect that decriminalization will be on the books in the near future, but there are a lot of political and social issues to consider before full legalization occurs. In the US, the movement to legalize marijuana took decades, and didn’t see any success until referendums to legalize recreational usage in Colorado and Washington passed in 2012. Furthermore, it took two years after these referendums for legalization to actually be implemented. While I do think that Trudeau has every intention of speeding up the process towards marijuana regulation—the way things are going it’s almost inevitable—it will take time. If Trudeau doesn’t get re-elected, it’s very possible it won’t even happen during his tenure.
Increasing arts funding
Likelihood: 7.
Trudeau, a former drama teacher, has made some big promises in terms of renewing investments in the Canadian arts scene. He has pledged an increase of $150 million in annual funding to the CBC, whose resources have been drastically cut in the past decade, as well as doubling the investments made to the Canadian Council of the Arts from $180 to 360 million. Normally, I wouldn’t trust promises from politicians involving large sums of money, but this seems to fall in line with Trudeau’s overall economic platform of running a deficit in order to spend more on infrastructure, in an attempt to spur growth. And since the arts are something near and dear to his heart, I think that the long-struggling CBC, and Canadian artists everywhere, have a reason to be cautiously optimistic on this issue.
BONUS PROMISE: Ending the MSM blood donation ban
Likelihood: 8.
Under the current law, men who have been sexually active with other men must be celibate for at least five years before being eligible to donate blood in Canada. With an incredibly rigorous process in place to screen donations of blood and organs, it’s hard to view this ban as anything but outright discrimination. Let’s hope that this will be one of many promises kept by Trudeau that elevates science over stereotypes!