Oscar Watch 2015

Best Picture Predictions and then some

With November well underway, Oscar season is in full gear. It is the most wonderful time of the year for movie fans like me. From the end of September until the middle of January is where studios typically position releases of their ‘award-worthy’ films. This puts us smack in the middle of a busy period, and thankfully, because we need something to distract us from exams around the corner. A good film presents the perfect escape from the daily grind and can be just what’s needed to clear one’s head. With this is mind, I would like to make some early Oscar predictions and along the way highlight some of the films that should be on your ‘watch radar’.

What am I basing my predictions on? An endless number of factors: the cast, the director, the trailer, the plot, the genre, previous Oscar wins/body of work, typical voting patterns, size of studio (major/indie), the reviews, release date, general buzz, box-office numbers, and my general gut feeling. Many Oscar hopefuls have already been released and more are slated to be released in the coming weeks.  I have seen several of the films mentioned below (“Steve Jobs”, “Room”, “Bridge of Spies”, “Sicario”, “Mad Max: Fury Road”, “The Martian”); however, the majority I have not. This makes everything that much more challenging – there is a chance I could make a complete fool of myself. The following are my predictions for this year’s Best Picture award (ranked in order of nomination likelihood):

1. Spotlight (Open Road)

   

An all-star ensemble cast, an up-and-coming director, positive reviews out of TIFF – “Spotlight” has it all going for it. It tells the Pulitzer Prize winning story of how Boston Globe reporters uncovered the massive scandal of child molestation and cover-up within the local Catholic Archdiocese in the early 2000s. It is my frontrunner to take Best Picture and is a virtual lock to receive a nomination. I predict that Tom McCarthy wins Best Director and gets a nomination for Best Original Screenplay with co-writer Josh Singer. I could also see it earning a couple Supporting Actor nominations, most likely for Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo. It was just released on November 13^th in select theatres.

2. Room (A24)

Winner of the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, “Room” appears poised for a Best Picture nomination. The trailer itself is moving. The film tells the harrowing story a 5-year-old boy and his mother and how they escape from the room in which they are being held prisoners. The small room is all the boy has ever known, what he knows of life is what his mother has taught him. The film’s director, Lenny Abrahamson, and the cast are relatively unknown and the plot might be too emotionally-angled to win Best Picture. However, I do think that Brie Larson will win for Best Actress and Emma Donoghue will be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay of her own novel. It is in select theatres now.

3. The Reverent (20^th Century Fox)

The trailer looks awesome and you have Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hardy starring. It is a period piece set in the 1820s in which a frontiersman seeks vengeance against those who left him for dead after a bear mauling. However, the film is directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu, whose film “Birdman” won Best Picture and Best Director last year. Never in the history of the Academy Awards has the same director had a film win in back-to-back years. It has not screened yet, but this would be my frontrunner if “Birdman” did not win last year. It should surely get a nomination. Iñárritu will get additional nominations for Best Director and Adapted Screenplay, but will not win. I predict that this is the year that DiCaprio finally wins a Best Actor Oscar. I’ve have heard insane stories about he nearly gave himself hypothermia to make his performance more realistic. It opens on January 8^th.

4. The Hateful Eight (The Weinstein Company)

Quentin Tarantino. Need I say more? His last two films “Django Unchained” (2012) and “Inglorious Basterds” (2009) both received Best Picture nominations. The plot focuses on a group of bounty hunters who become involved in a web of betrayal while seeking shelter during a blizzard in post-civil war Wyoming. The trailer doesn’t pull me too hard, and the plot sounds similar to Django Unchained; but, Tarantino has earned the benefit of the doubt and I will take a leap of faith on this, as of yet, unscreened film. I don’t see Tarantino getting a Best Director nomination this year because he will be a major contender to win Best Original Screenplay. It opens January 8^th, the same day as “The Reverent”. I know where I’ll be.

5. The Martian (20^th Century Fox)

Frankly, I would be content if “The Martian” was not nominated. It was too light-hearted and geared for mass audiences for me to view it is as anything more than a crowd-pleasing blockbuster. However, it did incredibly well at the box-office due in large part to a massive marketing campaign and was well received by basically everyone who has seen it. In “The Martian”, astronaut Mark Watney becomes the ‘MacGyver of Mars’ using science and ingenuity to survive until being rescued. Sci-Fi’s are typically overlooked come Oscar-time; however, Matt Damon and Ridley Scott are household names and the film’s success will likely overcome this detractor. It should secure nominations in a number of technical categories and probably a Best Director nomination for Ridley Scott’s return to form. Damon may also eke out a Best Actor nomination over Tom Hanks (“Bridge of Spies”) and last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”). “The Martin” is now playing in theatres.

6. Inside Out (Disney)

I despise that animated films can be nominated for Best Picture. They have their own category – Best Animated Feature.  If precedent means anything, Pixar’s “Inside Out” will get a Best Picture nomination. Both “Up” (2009) and “Toy Story 3” (2010) earned Best Picture nominations and, by what I’ve read, “Inside Out” is comparable to or better than each of those films. “Inside Out” tells the story of a young girl through her emotions (Joy, Fear, Anger, Disgust and Sadness) as they battle it out for control of her life after a move to a new city. It is a virtual lock to win Best Animated Feature and should also get a nomination for Best Original Screenplay for Pete Doctor and company. It was just released on Blu-ray and DVD.

7. Bridge of Spies (Disney)

Similar to Tarantino, Steven Spielberg films naturally garner a lot of Oscar-buzz. His last two films, “Lincoln” (2012) and “War Horse” (2011) were both nominated. He has had seven of his films nominated for Best Picture. “Bridge of Spies” is set in the heart of the Cold War. An idealistic American lawyer is recruited to first defend an accused Soviet spy and then help the CIA negotiate a prisoner exchange for a captured American spy plane pilot. It is inspired by true events which tend to give film’s bonus points. Mark Rylance will likely win for Best Supporting Actor; he is brilliant as the Soviet spy. However, I see Hanks and Spielberg being shut out in the Actor and Director categories, respectively.  Nothing overly extraordinary happens in the movie and it feels overly “Disney-ish” at the end, especially for a Spielberg film. A solid film, but I am listing it here solely because I am hedging my bets on the Spielberg name. It is playing in theatres now.

8. Steve Jobs (Universal)

Of the Best Picture contenders I have seen thus far, “Steve Jobs” is my favourite. However, it doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz. I don’t think it is what a lot of people were expecting; it is such an unconventional film. It tells the story of Steve Jobs, over the course of 14-years, behind the scenes at three separate public unveilings of new products. It ends in 1998, before the Apple we have come to know exists. Michael Fassbender gives an Oscar-worthy portrayal of Steve Jobs the visionary and Steve Jobs the asshole. He is DiCaprio’s stiffest competition. The rest of the cast, including Kate Winslet, Seth Rogen, Jeff Daniels and Michael Stuhlbarg give phenomenal performances. The screenplay is brilliantly written by Aaron Sorkin (“A Few Good Men”, “The Social Network”, “Moneyball”), who no one will ever accuse of underwriting a script. A Best Original Screenplay nod for Sorkin and a Best Supporting Actress nod for Winslet are likely. Fassbender, Winslet and Sorkin overshadow Danny Boyle’s (“Slumdog Millionaire”) fine directing. It is playing in theatres now.

9. Joy (20^th Century Fox)

The academy loves David O. Russell films, “The Fighter” (2010), “Silver Linings Playbook” (2012) and “American Hustle” (2013) all received Best Picture nomination. All of these films are slightly overrated if you ask me. Jennifer Lawrence stars as Joy, a woman who rises to become the matriarch of a powerful family business dynasty. This is another film that has not screened yet, but the trailer looks good and the principals involved warrant the gamble on a predicted nomination. Russell will get a Best Directing nomination and share a Best Original Screenplay nomination with Annie Mumolo, but will not contend. Lawrence will undoubtedly receive a Best Actress nomination; she can do nothing wrong these days. It gets to compete with “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” on a Christmas day release. I wonder who will win that box-office battle?

I am going to predict that 9 films are nominated for Best Picture this year. Since the rule change in 2009, nine films is the mean, median and mode [2009: 10 films, 2010: 10 films, 2011: 9 films, 2012: 9 films, 2013: 9 films, and 2014: 8 films]. The two films that I anticipate being on the Best Picture bubble are John Crowley’s “Brooklyn” and Todd Haynes’ “Carol”. Saoirse Ronan will likely receive a Best Actress nomination for her portrayal of an Irish immigrant in 1950s in “Brooklyn”. Blanchett, a perennial Best Actress contender, would likely be nominated twice this year – for her roles in “Carol” and “Truth”.  But the Academy has a rule against the same person being nominated twice in the same category. “Carol” has attracted much better reviews than “Truth” and is most likely.

The buzz surrounding “Black Mass” has faded for a Best Picture nomination. However, I still think Johnny Depp receives a Best Actor nomination for his role as mobster Whitey Bulger. I recently watched the trailer for “Concussion” starring Will Smith as forensic neuropathologist, Dr. Bennet Omalu, who made the first discovery of CTE, a football-related brain trauma injury. Smith seems like a safe bet to get a Best Actor nomination, but this is Fassbender and DiCaprio’s category this year.

A wildcard is Adam McKay’s “The Big Short” which stars Christian Bale, Steve Carrell, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt as four outsiders who predicted Wall Street’s collapse in the mid-2000s. The cast is amazing, but the trailer does not make me bold enough to foresee a Best Picture nomination. My main problem is director Adam McKay whose previous projects include directing “Anchorman 2” and “Step Brothers” – hardly Best Winner contenders. It opens December 23^rd. But perhaps the biggest wildcard is Ron Howard’s “In the Heart of the Sea” which is based on the true story that inspired “Moby Dick”. I could see this being great, but completely miss the mark with Oscar voters.

Unfortunately, the Oscar-buzz for Canadian director Denis Villeneuve’s “Sicario” is dwindling. It is a longshot to get a Best Picture nod; however, it remains one of the best film’s I’ve seen all year. Villeneuve had a similar fate in 2013 when the inspired “Prisoners” regrettably fell through the cracks come Oscar time. “Sicario” will likely earn Roger Diekins his first ever Best Cinematography Oscar after losing on 12 other occasions. Benecio Del Toro is a safe bet to be nominated for Best Supporting Actor for his shadowy and pivotal role in the film. I am excited to see Justin Kurzel’s dark adaption of Shakespeare’s “Macbeth”. It has received great reviews from its screenings, stars heavyweights Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard; however, there is absolutely no Oscar buzz surrounding this film at all and I am puzzled why. There is also very little buzz for the Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman and Chiwetel Ojiofor led “The Secret in Their Eyes”. If you have not seen the original 2009 Argentinian film it is based on, put it on your list.  The trailer is great; but perhaps being a remake makes the bar that much higher.

I would also have to give an honourable mention to “Mad Max: Fury Road” which came out in early May (hurting its nomination chances). If it were up to me, I would make sure George Miller receives a Best Director nomination for his visionary work. But alas, its best chances are in Film Editing and the Sound categories.

We have to wait until January 14^th to see how well I did when the Oscar nominations are announced. The winners will be announced February 28^th when the 88^th Oscars air live.