How this year’s group of NHL RFAs are trying to reset the market
As has been detailed by nearly every media outlet, this year’s crop of restricted free agents (RFA) is likely the best we will see for many years to come. The king of the castle is surely Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who has just accepted a 6-year deal with an average annual value of $10.893 million. The remaining unsigned RFAs include Mikko Rantanen, Brayden Point, Patrik Laine, Matthew Tkachuk, and Kyle Connor. Indeed, this group of players could form a squad on their own and surely compete for Lord Stanley’s Cup. But enough with the hypotheticals, let’s discuss the concept of an RFA, and how once these dominoes fall, players can finally get to training camp before the season starts.
I think it is pertinent to first discuss what differentiates an RFA from an unrestricted free agent (UFA). An RFA is different than a UFA in that the latter can negotiate with any team and sign anywhere he wants once his contract expires. As an RFA, the player’s rights are still controlled by their respective club. However, outside teams can still tender what is called an “offer sheet” to these players in the hopes of acquiring a star from a rival team, or by handcuffing them financially. If the player signs the offer sheet, the team that holds the player’s rights has a right of first refusal, and can choose to match the exact contract offer in order to keep the player. If they choose not to match, the signing team receives the player but will have to pay draft picks to the team losing the player’s services as compensation. The quality and quantity of draft picks is determined based on the term and salary of the contract signed by the player, and can be up to four first-round draft picks. This concept is generally thought of to be a slimy move by many people around the hockey world and NHL general managers have been hesitant to tender an offer sheet because they are afraid they will be blackballed by other teams around the league. For this reason, we rarely see serious offer sheets. Sebastian Aho was tendered an offer sheet in July by the Montreal Canadiens, but there was simply no way the Carolina Hurricanes wouldn’t match it. This was more likely to be a shot at saying, “hey, we can do this if we want” than anything else.
As Marner has now signed for a considerable length, I feel it is important to take a brief look at the contract and what it means for the Maple Leafs; both now and in the future. Kyle Dubas, General Manager of the Leafs, famously said that, “he can and he will [sign the big 3 of Matthews, Marner, & Nylander].” Well, he has lived up to his promise, but at what cost? There is no doubt that the Leafs are set up to be a dominant force this season. With the acquisitions of Tyson Barrie and Alexander Kerfoot from the Avalanche, and one more year of experience for Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, the time is now. Unfortunately, the current salary distribution in Leafland is a bit suspect, as literally every defenseman on the Leafs besides Morgan Rielly will need a new contract at season’s end. Surely this will mean that names like Jake Muzzin and Cody Ceci will be gone after next season. There is hope to sign Barrie, but he will have to accept a team-friendly offer, something the likes of Matthews, Nylander, and Marner did not do. In my opinion, for this team to find continued success in the future, they will need their budding AHL defenseman to step up into a permanent role very soon. Players like Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin will need to be key pieces moving forward for the Leafs to have long-term success.
Now, onto the idea of the dominoes. Around 6 superstar quality players currently sit without a contract as training camp looms. This, in my opinion, is because the rest of the RFAs were waiting on Marner to sign in order to set the market. As Marner commanded a costly $10.893 million per year, the rest of the RFAs are surely licking their chops. In my opinion, none of the remaining players can say they are at the caliber of Marner, however there is no doubt that some could certainly make the argument that they are. This is especially true for Brayden Point of the Tampa Bay Lightning. What is most interesting about this situation is that Tampa Bay has the delightful advantage of having no income tax in Florida. This means that they can theoretically offer Point a contract with a lower AAV because he will lose nothing to income tax. This also gets into the debacle of taxing players twice based on their nationality and what state or province they play in, but we’ll save that discussion for another time. As we move closer and closer to training camp, I expect most of the above list to be signed. If I had to wager one player who might hold out, it would be Patrik Laine of the Winnipeg Jets, based on disparities between and how much he thinks he is worth and how the team values him. The long, winding negotiations of the summer are nearly finished, and now we wait and let the dominoes fall.