Assessing how each NHL team did in their big offseason test
Well, the free agency dominoes in the NHL have fallen. But who overpaid, and who came away with a total bargain? Let’s look at the contracts of the four restricted free agents who were expected to take home the biggest pay-day at the start of the summer.
Sebastian Aho (CAR – C)
Contract Projection: 6 years/$60M – $10M average-annual-value (AAV)
Actual Contract: 5 years/$42.27M – $8.454M AAV
It was supposed to be the “summer of offer sheets” this offseason, yet Aho was the only player who actually ended up signing one. The Montreal Canadiens attempted to steal the young Finnish centre away from Carolina with a contract under the upper compensation thresholds that would’ve only cost the Habs a first, second, and third round pick for Aho’s services.
While it was nice to see Marc Bergevin actually use the often-rumoured but never utilized tool of an offer sheet, it was a rather weak effort from the Montreal general manager. Aho likely only signed this deal to gain leverage on the Hurricanes, who appeared to be low-balling him. This ended up being an incredible bargain for the Hurricanes, even if they did not want to pay upwards of $8 million for Aho. If there’s any downside to this deal, it’s that Carolina couldn’t get Aho on a longer term. Then again, they didn’t write the contract, so they can’t really complain.
Grade: B+
Brayden Point (TBL – C)
Contract Projection: 5 years/$42.5M – $8.5M AAV
Actual Contract: 3 years/$20.25M – $6.75M AAV
Even though the deal is only three years, it feels like Tampa Bay used voodoo and wizardry to get Brayden Point at that number. Point isn’t underrated at this point, but he’s certainly under-appreciated. He was the #1 centre for the Lightning last season, the most dominant *regular-season* team of the NHL’s salary cap era.
The Lightning were certainly in a cap crunch, and it was difficult at times to see how Tampa Bay was going to be able to retain Point without giving away too many assets. For a young player coming off a 41-goal, 92-point season, a long term deal wasn’t going to be in Tampa Bay’s price range. A bridge contract isn’t ideal, but to get that value for a player who can score as many points as Point is incredible. At $6.75 million per year, the Lightning still have $1 million to spare under the $81.5 million cap. Ultimately, this sets them as bonafide Cup contenders for the next three years, at a minimum.
Grade: A-
Mitch Marner (TOR – RW)
Contract Projection: 6 years/$58.5M – $9.75M AAV
Actual Contract: 6 years/$65.358M – $10.893M AAV
Despite all the prognostications of doom, Kyle Dubas and the Maple Leafs managed to keep their Markham-born star winger, but this didn’t come with the hometown discount they likely hoped for. This stems from the fact that Marner and his camp demanded he be paid in comparison to his All-Star teammates, Auston Matthews and John Tavares.
While Marner did lead the Leafs in scoring last season, I’d still view him as being the third most valuable of the trio. Matthews already proved himself to be one of the best pure goal scorers in the game, as his 83 goals at even strength are the most of any player since he entered the league. Meanwhile Marner’s centre, Tavares had 47 goals last year (3rd in the NHL) and has been one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL over his career (6th most points in the NHL over the last 5 years at 5v5). Tavares and Marner both had career seasons playing with one another last season. Marner had 94 compared to his previous best of 69; Tavares had 88 compared to his former high of 86. Something tells me one player benefits a lot more from their partnership than the other.
You’re allowed to think Mitch Marner is one of the most exciting players in hockey and that he’s significantly overpaid. Those two things aren’t mutually exclusive. Even though Toronto gave Marner an enormous deal, the good news is they’ve still managed to keep all their young stars together by pulling out all the loopholes of Lost Time Injury Rate (LTIR) and emergency call-ups to give them every possible penny of cap space. It’s now time for their players to live up to the expectations.
Grade: B-
Mikko Rantanen (COL – RW)
Contract Projection: 8 years/$84M – $10.5M AAV
Actual Contract: 6 years/$55.5M – $9.25M AAV
Rantanen’s contract was the final deal to be signed of this group and happened to be the best of the bunch in my opinion, as Colorado got long-term security for one of their foundational players without having to break the bank.
Frankly, Colorado sort of took the Leafs to school on this one. Rantanen is a far closer comparable to Marner than his Leafs teammates. Both are highly skilled wingers that excel on the power play and broke out in a big way last season getting to play next to one of the best centres in the game, Nathan MacKinnon and John Tavares respectively. In ~240 career games played by each, Rantanen has 209 points to Marner’s 224. Yet while they both signed for the same length, Rantanen’s price tag was for $1.7 million less per season.
To add insult to injury, the Avalanche weren’t even worried about the financial ramifications of the deal, as they still have roster flexibility with over $6 million in cap space to start the season, unlike the cash-strapped Leafs. Colorado’s top line was chiefly responsible for their wild run to the second round of playoffs in 2019, and with the band back together for the next little while, it looks like the best is yet to come.
Grade: A