Lessons in Cause-and-Effect; from Walkerton to the Novel Coronavirus
The interesting thing about disaster is that it generally surprises when it strikes, yet it is often revealed to have been entirely predictable and preventable in hindsight.
Take the Walkerton E. coli disaster of 2000 as an example: more than two thousand sick, six people dead, and an entirely predictable and preventable situation caused in part by reckless government cuts, and incompetent local municipal administration. Or the flooding of the City of New Orleans in 2006 from the effects of Hurricane Katrina. Millions displaced, billions in damages, and a major American city thrown into apocalyptic chaos – broadcast live on cable news for the whole world to see. Yet, entirely predictable – it should have been obvious that the levees wouldn’t hold, and that the city was unprepared for the consequences.
And just these last few weeks, we’ve been witness to not one, but two slow-rolling disasters; both of which were entirely predictable, and preventable. Both illustrate the unfortunate consequences of ignoring the fundamental truth of cause-and-effect; what we do today will always have ramifications tomorrow.
The first disaster we’ll turn our eye to is the US Democrat Party’s first-in-the-nation primary vote for their presidential nomination, in the state of Iowa. As of Friday, February 7th, the Associated Press has announced that they are unable to declare a winner of the Iowa caucuses due to “irregularities” in the process and the results. This declaration coming a full four days after the caucuses were held, and results were originally expected to arrive. Both the Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders campaigns are declaring victory, the Chair of the Democratic National Committee, Tom Perez, is asking for a “re-canvass” of the results, and the Joe Biden campaign has called into question the legitimacy of the process and the results themselves.
This wasn’t supposed to happen. The Iowa caucuses were supposed to begin the Democrat Party’s inevitable march back into the White House and were expected to be a celebratory affair – likely for Joe Biden – and not the unmitigated catastrophe that it has become.
However, all of what has since occurred should have been so very obvious beforehand. The Iowa Democrat Party (IDP) had recently chosen to rely on an unproven election “app” called (strangely) Shadow, and further, the IDP was, for the first time ever, going to report not only the final-results in regards to state delegates awarded (state delegates being the measure by which the Democrat Party will eventually choose its Presidential nominee) but also the raw popular vote, and likewise a hard-to-understand metric called “State-Delegate-Equivalents.”
Right off the hop it should have been obvious that this combination of unproven technology, and an already complicated caucus process made even more complicated by the fact that three very different data-points were to be reported, was a recipe for complete disaster – and yet, the Democrat Party walked right into it. Cause, meet effect.
The second, and far more consequential disaster to discuss is that of the 2019 novel coronavirus. As of Friday, February 7th, the virus has infected well over 30,000 people in 25 different countries, has killed at least 639, while a further ~5,000 remain in “critical condition” in hospital. Cruise ships are being docked and quarantined, over 140 million people in China alone are under some sort of preventative lockdown, nations around the globe are shutting down their borders, and the World Health Organization has declared a global public health emergency.
The virus now has the very real potential to spread uncontrollably (if it hasn’t already) and cause a worldwide pandemic. Yet, much like the disasters discussed earlier, this all likely could have been prevented – or at the very least, mitigated and controlled.
Li Wenliang, a Chinese doctor from Wuhan, Hubei, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, tried to raise the alarm bells on the outbreak of this new killer virus months ago, at the start of December. In response, Chinese authorities detained Dr. Wenliang for spreading “dangerous rumours” on social media, rather than directing their resources at preventing the further spread of the virus in those vitally important early days.
Ominously, Dr. Wenliang – a healthy and highly educated young man of only 34 years – passed away on Thursday, February 6th, due to complications caused by the same novel coronavirus he was trying to warn the world about. And not to sound crass, but the circumstances of his death so wonderfully illustrate the Chinese authorities response to the crisis itself – which is to say, that there are many, many questions, with no sufficient answers being provided for.
How did a relatively well-off, healthy, 34 year-old young man die from the virus? Hasn’t the Chinese government said only those elderly and sick are at mortal risk from the virus? How did Dr. Wenliang become infected if he was wearing protective gear? If Dr. Wenliang was infected before the authorities began to take the situation seriously, how many others has he himself infected? Are the police officers who arrested him at-risk of infection themselves? His patients? So on, and so forth.
Even the response to the novel coronavirus here in Canada has seemed oddly insufficient. While many of our politicians have spoken at-length about the dangers of letting paranoia and panic to spread, and even addressing the issues of xenophobia and racism directed at people of Asian-descent triggered by fears of the virus, they have said very little about what practical measures the government is taking to prevent an outbreak in Canada. It would seem obvious that those coming from China should be required to undergo at least some sort of medical screening before receiving entry into the country, yet this has not yet materialized, despite similar measures being taken by other nations.
While there are only 7 confirmed cases of the virus in Canada so-far, it is not outside the realm of possibility that some of those 7 confirmed-infected have infected other Canadians who, due to the nature of the virus, may not yet realize they themselves are infected, and are thus currently spreading the infection to all those around them. As we saw in China, just a few initial cases of infection can quickly lead to an exponential explosion of infections, numbering not in the tens, or hundreds, but in the tens of thousands of thousands, and possibly even greater.
As such, it would be a disaster no different than many disasters that have come before – perhaps surprising when it strikes, but entirely predictable and preventable nonetheless. Had there not been a bureaucratic and administrative meltdown in Walkerton, it’s likely that many of us wouldn’t know the town exists today – and for the better. Had there not been obviously failing flood-prevention infrastructure in the City of New Orleans, it’s possible that the calamity that struck in 2006 would have been far, far less consequential in its impact. If the US Democrats had just used tried-and-true methods of vote tallying and reporting in Iowa, it’s likely we would have had the results that evening, saving the party from an embarrassing debacle without precedent. Finally, if the Chinese government had been honest about the novel coronavirus from the start – and reacted accordingly – it’s possible that this outbreak would have never become the global public health emergency it now is, and perhaps, Dr. Li Wenliang would still be alive today.
So, with all of this said, what is to be done? My advice would simply be to not make the same mistakes that have been so illustrated here. Turning a blind-eye to reality rarely results in desirable outcomes, and denying the inevitability of consequence will only lead one to disaster and ruin. When faced with a problem, it is always best to be honest in your assessment, and in your chosen prescriptive response.
Many of us here at Osgoode Hall will one day go on to be leaders in our profession, our communities, and for some perhaps, our nation. Leadership must always be built on a stable foundation of honesty and trust, and without it, one is not a leader at all. The lamb that leads the rest of the flock to slaughter is not a leader indeed – but rather, simply the first casualty of an ill-fated, blinkered, decision to walk head-first into disaster. Never see the world with blinders on, and always show reality the respect it deserves, or you too could fall victim to cause-and-effect. But, never forget, that my name is Corey LeBlanc, and this is just my opinion.
Editor’s Note: Nine issues in, and Corey has still maintained his signature signoff. We want to hear from you: does it remind you more of a radio broadcast, a TV news anchor signing off, or a general disclaimer of liability? Tell us next issue.