In June 2020, violence erupted at the Indian-Chinese border. Soldiers from both sides fought with their bare hands, pelting stones and wielding iron bars and nail-studded clubs – all in pitch darkness. Many fell to their deaths, off a steep cliff and into the freezing Galwan river.
India and China share a nearly 3500 km. long boundary, split into three sectors: the Western LAC (Line of Actual Control), the central sector, and the eastern McMahon Line – all of which have been subject to border disputes and military clashes over the years. These clashes include a short war in 1962 that ended in a decisive Chinese victory. The ’62 war commenced with China attacking India, allegedly over provocations regarding Tibet. The Dalai Lama, who had fled to India in 1959, set up a Tibetan government-in-exile in the Indian town of Dharamsala. However, the war had broader connotations, and fundamentally concerned two disputed pieces of territory – one in the eastern sector, known in China as “South Tibet” but administered by the Indians as “Arunachal Pradesh”; and one in the western sector, known as Aksai Chin. The Chinese claim both as part of Tibet, while the Indians derive their claims from various British treaties.
Aksai Chin is of paramount importance to China as it links the restive territories of Xinjiang and Tibet. In fact, while China had a stronger territorial claim to the eastern territories, in 1960 Zhou Enlai offered a deal whereby China would renounce its territorial claims on “South Tibet” in exchange for control over Aksai Chin. This deal, which was rejected, later came to play a fundamental role in the 1962 war. China advanced far into Indian territory in the eastern sector, well over the line it claimed as the international border (but which was de facto controlled by India), before retreating overnight to its previous position. The territories it conquered continue to be disputed, but are controlled by India. On the other hand, the Chinese exercise de facto control over Aksai Chin. The border, determined ostensibly by British agreements with Imperial China, is not clearly demarcated on a map. The region is remote and uninhabitable; its primary value comes from the presence of a road constructed by China between Xinjiang and Tibet.
Following the 1962 war, the de facto western border between the two countries came to be known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Although both sides exercise territorial claims in the region, an uneasy status quo has been maintained, albeit frequently punctured by small skirmishes. The two countries maintain outposts at predetermined areas, and soldiers are discouraged from using their firearms in order to reduce the chances of a dispute escalating – one of the reasons why the border clashes in June saw the use of such rudimentary weaponry.
It was a change in this status quo which precipitated the present conflict. In August 2019, India abolished the state of Jammu & Kashmir (within which Aksai Chin and the Galwan valley ostensibly lie), bifurcating it into the two federally-administered territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. The erstwhile state is home to many territorial disputes between India, China, and Pakistan; China therefore condemned what it described as an action undermining its sovereignty.
Further, China has consistently raised objections regarding India’s construction of defensive infrastructure on its side of the LAC, even while constructing an extensive network of supply routes for its own military. The turning point came with the construction of the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) road in the Indian territory of Ladakh. Built at an elevation of 16,000 feet, the road aims to connect remote Indian defensive outposts and allow easier transport for the military. Immediately thereafter, reports of small skirmishes between the Indian and Chinese soldiers began to be reported all along the western sector in May, eventually culminating in the desperate night-time fight in the Galwan Valley, where roughly 600 soldiers fought in pitch darkness for up to six hours.
What lies ahead?
The two countries have been remarkably cautious in their approach towards the conflict, urging restraint and repeatedly assuring the international community that all disputes were being handled at bilateral military and diplomatic talks. This ties into an earlier tradition of reconciliatory diplomacy, including summits in Wuhan in 2018 and Mamallapuram in 2019. However, several points of tension remain. Despite urging restraint and withdrawal, skirmishes continue to take place along the border, including the exchange of gunfire for the first time in 45 years. Further, this is not the first confrontation between the two countries in the recent past – in 2017, they almost came to blows at Doklam, a disputed territory at the trijunction of China, India, and Bhutan. While the situation was resolved without any loss of life, the Chinese soon reversed the withdrawal of troops by reoccupying many of the disputed areas.
Although both countries are in possession of nuclear arms, their use in this conflict is highly unlikely. Diplomatically, the focus is on de-escalation; the limited use of firearms suggests that both India and China want to contain the conflict within limited parameters. However, the future of the disputed areas is tenebrous; it remains to be seen whether both parties will return to the positions they held before the Galwan clashes.