Since the beginning of September, there has been a significant increase in daily COVID-19 cases province-wide, most likely due to the reopening of schools and universities. New daily cases now top five hundred, up from less than a hundred in the middle of August and surpassing the pandemic’s first peak in April. However, despite the recent upward trend in COVID-19 cases, Ontarians should not be as worried as they might have been when COVID cases were similarly high in April and Ontario was in full-fledged lockdown.
This Time is Different
Although Ontario’s new daily case numbers are similar to that of when Ontario was in its initial peak, Ontarians should refrain from panicking. First, though there has been an increase in cases, there has also been an increase in infection testing. Ontario is conducting an average of 40,000 tests a day, up from around 10,000 a day back in April. More testing leads to more positive tests. It is highly likely that there are actually fewer cases than there were in April, but more are being recorded. Second, with increased testing comes increased awareness about the virus and how to contain and control it. Third, and most important, COVID-related deaths have remained consistently low despite the surge in recorded cases. During the pandemic’s first wave in Ontario, daily deaths peaked at eighty-six while the last few weeks have seen a daily maximum of four deaths. In fact, daily deaths remain the lowest that they have been since the onset of the pandemic. This is most likely due to an increase in hospital readiness as well as a greater knowledge about the virus and how to treat it.
Why Ontario Will Not Re-Enter a Full Lockdown
The recent surge in COVID cases has many worried that Ontario may require another lockdown similar to the one implemented this spring. Although it would not be wise to rule out this possibility altogether, it is unlikely at this time. First, the governments of Canada and Ontario simply cannot afford another lockdown. The first lockdown devastated the Canadian economy and saw Canada’s deficit rise to over $343 billion (up from $34 billion in 2019) and our national debt exceeding one trillion. Second, with increased testing and contact tracing in place, Ontario is much better equipped to target and reduce the spread without needing to resort to a full lockdown. Finally, hospitals are now adequately prepared to handle the burden of an increase in patients as there has been a mass stockpiling of ventilators, PPE gear, and other necessities for the treatment of more severe cases.
Overall, the recent upward trend in COVID cases across Canada and ultimately across the country is concerning, but it should not cause panic. Although it is likely that Ontario will continue to impose light restrictions on social gatherings and social outings similar to the ones implemented last week by the Ford government, another lockdown is not looming. As Ford stated in his address last week, all options are on the table but that he would prefer to use a “scalpel” instead of a “hatchet” to deal with this second surge. For now, all we need to do is simply remain vigilant, wash our hands, social distance and wear masks where social distancing is not possible – panicking will not help us weather the second wave.
References
“Covid Case Data: All Ontario”, https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
“Fitch Downgrades Canadian Ratings to ‘AA+’; Outlook Stable”, https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-canada-ratings-to-aa-outlook-stable-24-06-2020
“Ottawa to post $343B deficit as spending hits levels not seen since Second World War”, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bill-morneau-fiscal-update-budget-deficit-1.5641864#:~:text=Deficit%20for%202020%2D21%20rises,Canadians%20and%20businesses%3A%20%24212%20billion.
“’Time to do something different’: Duelling public letters offer Doug Ford advice as he plots ‘targeted’ COVID-19 response”, https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/time-to-do-something-different-duelling-public-letters-offer-doug-ford-advice-as-he-plots-targeted-covid-19-response