On Sunday, Sept. 27, violence once more erupted between Armenia and
Azerbaijan in the long-disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a reserved territory located in the south Caucasus Mountains. As the ethnic and territorial hostility continues to heighten, the region has been thrust into uncertainty and on the edge once more in response to long-held claims over the land.
The conflict dates back to the early 20th century following the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1918, when the territory was claimed by both the Republic of Armenia and the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic. The ensuing war which broke out was largely de-escalated when Joseph Stalin, under the Soviet Union, established control over the territory and established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), granting control to Soviet Azerbaijan.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, tensions escalated as the NKAO parliament – home to an Armenian majority population – voted to secede from Azerbaijan and unite with Armenia in February 1988.
In the early 1990s, the conflict spiralled into a full-scale war, as the ethnic majority population of Armenians living in the region sought to have the region transferred from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia. The war advanced as the former Soviet Republics engaged in prolonged warfare along the mountains of Karabakh, with international mediation failing to advance a resolution which satisfied both sides. In May 1994, by the culmination of the war, the Armenians had acquired control of much of the territory and a negotiated ceasefire by Russia was signed by both parties. Despite this, talks in the following years failed to lead to a peace treaty. This inevitably left the region of Nagorno-Karabakh suspended in a state of legal ambiguity, with the self-declared Republic of Artsakh remaining de facto independent but unrecognized by the international community, while de jure control remained in the hands of Azerbaijan. Despite the ceasefire, ethnic Armenians supported by the Armenian government have sought to declare the region an independent republic, driving out Azerbaijanis from the region. As a result of the conflict over the disputed territory, approximately 700,000 Azerbaijanis from Armenia and 230,000 Armenians from Azerbaijan have been permanently displaced, and low-level fighting has continued over the years since the ceasefire.
Despite progressive momentum in recent years that signalled steps being taken towards signing a treaty, the emergence of fighting this past summer has rekindled demand from both sides for autonomy over the region. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of directly firing into each other’s territory and declared martial law, amounting to numerous civilian and soldier casualties. As the international community called for a ceasefire, tensions further intensified as regional powers became involved.
Russian president Vladimir Putin had sold weapons to both rival countries, but despite
holding strong relations with Azerbaijan, Russia is required to defend Armenia in times of war
under treaty obligations. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has actively backed Turkic
Muslims in Azerbaijan, while expressing sharp criticism towards the actions of Armenians,
calling on “the entire world to stand with Azerbaijan in their battle against invasion and cruelty.” The Foreign Affairs Ministry of Armenia has further claimed that Azerbaijan has received “large-scale military-political support from Turkey”, asserting that Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh are “fighting a Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance.”
Bordering both Azerbaijan and Armenia, Iran has offered to mediate the conflict, while reassuring Azerbaijan that it recognizes the country’s autonomy over the region. President Hassan Rouhani’s chief of staff has asserted that Iran’s stance “has always been clear and transparent as it has always recognized the neighbouring country’s territorial integrity and respected it.” Furthermore, Iran has called upon Armenia to bring an end to the conflict and seek a resolution, with President Rouhani asserting to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashynian that Iran’s “wish is to immediately stop the clashes” and “to resolve the region’s issues through political discourse and international laws.” President Rouhani restated his concern over the accelerating conflict, declaring that Iran stands prepared to act as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan to negotiate “within the framework of international laws”.
To add to the group of foreign powers tangled in the conflict, evidence has recently emerged of rebels from Syria being recruited to engage in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. However, both the governments of Azerbaijan and Turkey have denied allegations of recruiting Syrian armed forces, with the Turkish government dismissing the claims as senseless allegations. In addition, both France and the United States have pushed for negotiations to de-escalate the conflict. The interests of the international community are further heightened given that the Nagorno-Karabakh region is home to a passage for the transport of gas and oil from the Caspian Sea to the international market.
The implications of the intensifying conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region stretch far
beyond a territorial dispute between two rival powers. The consequences of the conflict
escalating into a full-scale war include military-powers Russia and Turkey becoming engaged in
a larger regional conflict. There are also significant implications for the international community at large, with more than 100,000 civilians potentially being caught directly in the crossfire. The history of the conflict within the Nagorno-Karabakh regions stands as another stark display of the consequences which arise from a great power drawing arbitrary lines along a map, highlighting that great powers hold the potential to create great wars.