Unless you live under a rock, you are probably at least vaguely aware of the United States presidential election. The contest between incumbent Donald Trump and former Vice-President Joe Biden has truly been a clash of titans, if titans meant men in their seventies. There are a great many differences between the two candidates, but one area where the contrast is most evident is in their respective approaches to the issue of climate change. I’d venture to say that an apt summary of the Trump position on climate change would have to be a mix of claiming to have an exemplary record on the environment while rolling back environmental regulations and denying that there’s really even much of a problem to begin with. Frankly, it was only ever a rebranding of previous iterations of climate change denialism within the Republican Party. The Biden campaign’s approach, on the other hand, declared climate change to be an existential threat and proposed a variety of national and international undertakings intended to “meet the threat of climate change.” That being said, the Biden plan does not go as far as some might like, notably recognizing the Green New Deal as a “crucial framework” rather than embracing it as a policy objective. Ultimately, the gap between the two candidates on the issue of climate change was a massive issue that featured prominently throughout the campaign period.
The implications of a United States election on Canada cannot be overstated. The adage that “when America sneezes, Canada gets a cold” rings true. There is one issue that may be particularly prone to agitation by a Biden presidency: Western Alienation. While popular support for ‘Wexit’, as it may be referred to, has yet to reach alarming levels, the Canadian experience with Quebec separatism justifies taking the matter seriously. The economic issues facing the prairie provinces, which account for the majority of Canada’s oil production, have contributed to the sense of discontent that has motivated some to join the Maverick party, formerly the Wexit party. The perception that the federal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has neglected the western provinces and the outcome of the 2019 election, in which the Liberal Party retained power despite winning no ridings in either Alberta or Saskatchewan, served as something of a watershed moment. For some, it was the precipitating factor for those who now reject their place in Canada in favor of splitting off and starting something new. Having registered to contest the next election, the Maverick party seems poised to carry the banner of Western separatism to the polls and their capacity to win over voters could have severe ramifications on Canada’s national unity.
Where does Joe Biden fit into all of this? To sum it up in one word: pipelines. The ability to transport oil has been a key issue for voters involved in the oil industry. Opposition to the construction of pipelines to the Pacific via British Columbia or the Atlantic via Quebec has stifled the development of any to the East or the West. The incumbent governments and politics of both British Columbia and Quebec make a changed stance on pipeline construction unlikely, especially in the immediate future. That leaves the oil refineries of our southern neighbor and the proposed Keystone XL pipeline. President Barack Obama rejected Keystone XL in 2015, and then-candidate also Hillary Clinton expressed her opposition to the project. President Trump, in keeping with his general environmental policy, revived the project and sought to expedite the environmental review process upon taking office. A Trump re-election would assuredly continue the project, but a Biden administration seems likely to adopt the same position that Barack Obama’s administration followed. Indeed, Biden has previously pledged to rescind the project’s permit if elected. A Biden victory means that the future of the Keystone XL project does not look especially bright.
What would this mean for the cause of Western Alienation? I find it difficult to conceive that the cancellation of Keystone XL, again, would in any way detract from the resentment that has so far fueled the secessionist sentiments. In all likelihood, the cancellation of the project will lead to anger against both the American and Canadian federal governments. While the decision to cancel the project will have been beyond Trudeau’s control, he will nonetheless be blamed for the failure to prevent it. As the head of the federal government, which is in charge of Canada’s foreign affairs, the responsibility for attempting to lobby or otherwise intervene against the cancellation of the project will fall to him and the Liberal Party. I am skeptical that the government will try all that hard to save the pipeline project, having tied its image to taking action on climate change. That being said, it almost goes without saying that no credit will be given for any effort to save the project that is ultimately unsuccessful. If Joe Biden is dead set on killing Keystone XL, then there is nothing that Justin Trudeau or his government can really do about it. In that respect, it is almost a ticking time bomb of western resentment just waiting to happen. Beginning with the inauguration on January 20, 2021, the countdown starts.
The Maverick party has only recently entered the political arena and Western Alienation is still a new political phenomenon for many Canadians. The sudden rise in calls for ‘Wexit’ following the 2019 election caught many, including myself, by surprise. In the long-term, the prospect of separatist governments in the Western provinces could be the national unity crisis of our generation. In the more immediate term, there is the possibility that Western separatists siphon votes from Conservative candidates in Western ridings and increase the competitiveness of what would otherwise be safe blue ridings. It should not be forgotten that vote splitting in Alberta between the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose paved the way for a one-term NDP majority government. Vote splitting between Conservative and Maverik party candidates could allow Liberal or NDP candidates to cut into the Conservative heartland and pick up seats that might have otherwise been unattainable. A significant showing of support for Western separatism at the polls could prove to be disastrous for the Conservative Party of Canada, cutting into its most reliable bastion of support and perhaps eroding any prospects of forming a government in the near future.
The Maverick Party, and the broader issue of Western Alienation that has given rise to it, is not yet an especially pressing issue for Canada’s national unity. It may now be viewed as a somewhat fringe group, but that does not mean it will always be so. Support for the secession of Quebec did not materialize out of thin air. In spite of two referendums and countless elections in which support for secession has wavered, a core of support for the idea remains and may well see a resurgence someday. The prospect of a significant secessionist movement in the Western provinces seems unthinkable to me today, but I am wary nonetheless. The prospect of Keystone XL’s cancellation is one that we should not be unabashedly eager for. While it is an undeniable fact that the cancellation of the project would fit into Canada’s shift towards lower carbon emissions per our commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement, it would also deepen regional divisions along economic and political lines. Western Alienation may well become a defining political issue of our time, and Joe Biden’s stance on the Keystone XL project may well serve as a contributing factor.