Earlier this week, the Ethiopian military launched a military offensive into its Northern region of Tigray. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, stated that the offensive was in response to an attack on a federal military base in the region. Abiy claims that a regional political group, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), is behind the attacks. Abiy’s military offensive has many worried that Ethiopia might be headed for a civil war.
Ethiopia’s current conflict is a result of growing tensions in the region between the TPLF and Ethiopia’s federal government. The TPLF is an armed political group present in Ethiopia’s Northeastern region of Tigray. The group came to prominence as a militia group that was instrumental in the overthrow of Ethiopia’s dictatorship in 1991. Since 1991, the TPLF has exercised considerable control over Ethiopian politics. This changed in 2018, when Ethiopia’s current Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, formed a coalition government that essentially sidelined the TPLF from federal politics. The TPLF asserted that the newly formed coalition was illegal and refused to recognize it. As a result, tensions have been rising between the TPLF and the federal government since 2018.
Tensions reached a boiling point this September when the federal government cancelled elections due to public health concerns pertaining to COVID-19. However, the Tigray region, governed by the TPLF, held elections anyway. In response, the federal government stopped providing funding to the region. The TPLF asserted that the federal government’s refusal to provide funding amounted to a “declaration of war”. Since then, the TPLF have been accused of inciting violence across Ethiopia and providing support and arms to other Ethiopian opposition groups. This has led many in the federal government to call for the removal of the TPLF, with some going as far as to label it as a “terrorist organization”. Abiy finally claimed that, “the last red line had been crossed” when he accused TPLF forces of attacking a federal military base in Tigray – an accusation that has yet to be proven. Ethiopia’s federal government responded by launching a military offensive into Tigray.
Since the offensive began on November 4th, there have already been reports of civilian and military deaths. There are fears that this conflict may escalate into a full-out civil war. Although Tigray is a small region within Ethiopia, the TPLF are a battle-hardened group which may reduce the prospect of peace. There is also a fear that other Ethiopian opposition groups may use this conflict as an opportunity to take up arms of their own. Finally, there are concerns over the impact this conflict will have on Ethiopia’s neighbours.
So far, the United Nations Human Rights Commission has already reported over 20,000 refugees fleeing into neighbouring Sudan. Moreover, it seems as if Eritrea – Ethiopia’s neighbour to the North – has joined the fight against the TPLF, making this a multinational conflict. There are further concerns that Ethiopia’s other neighbours such as Somalia and Sudan may also be drawn into the conflict. What comes next for Ethiopia is anybody’s guess, but one look at the history of armed conflict in Africa does not paint an optimistic picture.