The month of February began tumultuously amidst reports of the Myanmarese military detaining members of the civilian government and declaring control of the country. Though it is too soon to say anything definitively, it appears that the democratic transition initiated roughly a decade ago has come to an end. This is not the first time that the military has overthrown a civilian government in Myanmar. In 1962, a coup d’état ended the country’s first phase of post-independence democracy and initiated a military dictatorship that would persist until 2011. Despite democratic reform in 2011, the military retained a significant degree of influence and independence. Specifically, the military retained the right to appoint a quarter of the legislature and the ability to act with significant autonomy. Although these concessions may have provided a fulcrum for democratic reform, they now appear to be an integral component of facilitating the return of military rule.
Myanmar is one of many post-colonial states where democratic rule has been the exception rather than the rule. After nearly fifty years of a brutal and autocratic regime, the 2011 democratic reform gave rise to a new hope. This too has now been snuffed out. As Marx’s remark on Hegel goes, “all great world-historic facts appear, so to speak, twice… first as tragedy, then as farce.” What is happening in Myanmar is certainly a tragedy, but the absurdity of it all cements it as utterly farcical. The 2020 election in Myanmar, only the second since 2011, saw the ruling National League of Democracy win with an enlarged supermajority. The opposition, including the army, alleged voter fraud and have now detained head of government Aung San Suu Kyi and head of state Win Myint. On the basis of ‘protecting democracy’, the military has overthrown the democratic government and reinstituted a military dictatorship. The military has officially claimed that the state of emergency will only last a year, yet states of emergencies that are used as a pretense to curtail people’s rights and freedoms have a tendency to drag on for much longer. In the case of Myanmar, perhaps even decades.
A military more powerful than civilian government is a military that can exert itself as a political actor. History is rife with examples of this happening. The Wehrmacht, for example, was an autonomous entity within the Weimar Republic, with military officers routinely injecting themselves into political and paramilitary activities. German interwar democracy suffered for it to such an extent that an erratic Austrian demagogue was able to take power and initiate some of history’s greatest atrocities. The difference here is that there will be no delay between a collapsing democracy and the start of atrocities, as Myanmar and its military are already engaged in a genocide.
The Rohingya Genocide has been described by the United Nations as “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing” and it has already been going on for several years. If such atrocities have been committed by the military of Myanmar at a time when it was cooperating with a democratically elected and accountable civilian government, then the military assuming exclusive political power will only make things worse.
At the time of writing this, the future of Myanmar is not immediately clear as the military seizes control of the country. Many people have been arrested and important pro-democracy politicians have been deposed. Many people who were political prisoners under prior military regimes are being detained once more. In what feels like the blink of an eye, a decade of democratization appears to have been undone. Many countries have issued statements expressing concern. Some have gone farther and declared their explicit opposition to the actions of the military. The United States has even threatened to sanction the perpetrators of the coup. While it is clear that the international community is not receptive to this coup d’état, mere words and statements will not reverse what has been done. When Myanmar returns to democratic rule, regardless of whether it occurs in a manner of months, years, or decades, it will have to be done through the efforts of the people of Myanmar. If there is one lesson to be taken from this, let it be that the political influence and stature of the military of Myanmar will have to be utterly destroyed if democracy is to survive. Anything less and this cycle will play out again, as both a tragedy and a farce.