It has been ten years since the revolutionary high of the 2011 Arab Spring protests rippled across the Middle East and North African nations, underscoring the heavily fragmented nature of relations between rulers and the ruled. Despite the wave of protests that erupted in nations across the region, there were limited victories, and, to this day, the political and economic crises that fueled the protests remain largely unresolved.
The Beginning of a Revolution:
In January 2011, the self-immolation of a Tunisian street vendor played a pivotal role for years to come in the future of civil society and government relations across Arabic-speaking nations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Tunisian protestors galvanized shortly after Mohamed Bouazizi, a street vendor in Tunisia, took his own life in response to police officers attempting to shut down his business without warrant. The protests emerged in retaliation of and frustration with the regime, ripe with economic and political corruption. As they demonstrated against government corruption and the autocratic president, Tunisian’s were ultimately successful in their pursuit for regime change.
As the success in Tunisia echoed across state boundaries into neighbouring nations, anti-government demonstrations erupted across the MENA nations, from protestors demanding human rights reforms in Bahrain, to a government crackdown in Libya, to the president of Yemen stepping down in response to massive political protests. These pro-democratic uprisings spread rapidly, effectively toppling the governments of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. However, despite the successes of these anti-government protests, these uprisings played an instrumental role in enabling the emergence of civil wars and paving the path for the resurgence of dictatorships across some MENA nations. In Yemen, Syria, and Libya, the violent suppression that closely followed the protests set forth the onset of overwhelming conflict that continues to this day.
Constructing Divisions and Crises:
In the years following the uprisings, political elites manipulated the sectarian and ethnic divides within the nations, seeking to reinforce and heighten the norms of inequality. Political elites leveraged the increased division within these nations to secure their position and protect their political power in the face of mounting challenges and threats to their supremacy. Resultantly, these elites played a crucial role in suspending and aggravating conflict in many MENA nations following the Arab Spring by fragmenting the collective effort of civil society protests in a desperate grab for power.
In Syria, Bashar al-Assad developed a strategic narrative to frame the protestors as Islamic extremists, which invoked fears of a Sunni backlash across Syria and dismantled the collective effort of the uprising. In Egypt, the political Islam that emerged under the Muslim Brotherhood after toppling Hosni Mubarak was heralded as a key element in heightening violence against minorities and sectarian groups. Similarly, in Bahrain, protestors were framed as ‘fifth columnists’ who were acting on behalf of Iran, and as the protests were defeated, King Hamad declared that an “external plot” had been thwarted. In the years that followed the Arab Spring uprisings, civil society protests became increasingly isolated as regimes promptly and violently cracked down on oppositions.
A Present Shaped by Past Demands:
As a result, the years following the protests were largely shaped by a struggle for reasserting sovereign power in response to shifting international and national pressures. Yet, many of the systemic factors that fueled the protests in 2011 remained unresolved. There was a continued unwillingness on the part of political elites to address the underlying social, economic and political factors which fueled civil unrest and frustration. Consequently, the grievances of civil society across much of the MENA region remained unresolved, prompting instances of violent confrontation between the rulers and the ruled over the continued unresponsiveness of the state. These moments of unrest continued to shape the region across much of the 20th century as economic and social vulnerabilities continued to heighten and national unrest continued to ripple across the region.
By 2015, it was estimated that 53% of the MENA region’s population required support from non-state actors. In 2019, massive protests erupted once more across Lebanon and Iraq. In Lebanon, the protests launched in response to the government’s plan to impose a tax on WhatsApp, however the underlying frustration was fueled by the mounting economic crisis plaguing the nation. Protests against the Iraqi government were led by thousands of youth activists who demanded economic and government reform in the face of pervasive corruption. The protests in Iraq were met with a violent repression by the state and by sectarian militias, halting political protests at the cost of further intensifying frustrations with the current system.
An Uncertain Future:
The resurgence of protests across the MENA nations provides a stark reminder that the people are continuing to rebel against many of the same issues which sparked the Arab Spring protests in 2011. It is largely unsurprising that widespread anger and frustration has paved the way for further instances of protest and demands for political and economic reform. As political elites continue to rely upon suppression and violent crackdowns to respond to civil unrest, the underlying causes of the protests remain unaddressed to this day. While elites have desperately clung to power, they have neither restored stability or confidence in the government as the grievances that fuelled the anger of civil society continues to intensify.
Frustration is smouldering across the MENA nations, and the region remains in a long and difficult battle ahead as the pandemic has further amplified economic strife. The future of the MENA nations remains uncertain and until these deeper economic and political issues have been addressed, it is clear that underlying frustrations will continue to fan the flames of civil uprisings and stanch processes of repression.