If countries can’t work together to decarbonize the economy and fight climate change, it is unlikely that the states will meet global pledges to emissions reductions in the Paris Agreement. This is nowhere more evident and worrisome than in US-China relations. Global warming is in large part a US-China problem; the two countries combined account for 43% of worldwide carbon emissions. Relations between these two countries may make or break what life is like on the planet in the decades that follow. However, talks on the subject of climate are unlikely to prosper when bilateral relations are poor, and as a result of US criticism of Chinese human-rights abuses against the Uighers, foreign espionage, and other trade woes, climate cooperation between the two global power players is unlikely to be on the horizon.
Anthony Blinken, Joe Biden’s secretary of state stated that, “Trump was right in taking a tougher approach to China”; he agreed that the Chinese government’s treatment of the Uigher Muslims amount to genocide. The response this garnered from China’s foreign ministry was an accusation of Biden administration, “interfering in its domestic affairs and undermining its interests” ; the statement continued to read that “China is willing to work with the US on climate change. But such cooperation cannot stand unaffected by the overall China-US relations.” Confirming prior assumptions, China expressed they would not be willing to cooperate with a country who they perceive to be meddling in its domestic affairs. To add another political hurdle into the mix, both countries struggle to reign supreme in international affairs. During Biden’s first foreign policy speech, he stated that American leadership must oppose authoritarianism and promised that China would face “repercussions” for its human rights violations. Latent in this statement was the notion that America will continue to challenge China’s increasing dominance. The other foreign policy goal Biden has triumphed is tackling climate change. These two goals are at odds with one another; the Biden administration cannot wage war for global hegemony while effectively fighting climate change. Environmental journalist Kate Arnott accurately captures this sentiment: “whether US warships in the South China Sea run on hydrogen won’t matter for the planet if conflicts there and on other fronts help to make bilateral cooperation on climate possible.”
It’s clear that the Communist Party leaders’ green ambitions increasingly align with its political and economic interest; China cannot be number one without being a climate leader. Arguably the US stepping away from global climate leadership under the Trump administration gave China the opportunity to step up and align its aspirations, to dominate the world and insist it must take climate change seriously. Given that 25% of the world’s pollution originates in China and half of the world’s coal supply is burned by China each year, it is clear why China needs to play a central role in global climate strategy; however, without US concessions this is unlikely to occur. Most recently, the coronavirus response has shed light on how geopolitical tensions undermine progress towards common objectives.
In low-trust times replicating high levels of cooperation that brought about the Paris Agreement may prove difficult. What we desperately need right now is climate cooperation and we need China to be onboard. This doesn’t mean turning a blind eye to atrocities being committed against the Uigher population, lack of government transparency fueled by an authoritarian system, and the constant threats to Taiwanese independence. Global leaders and climate activists must ask themselves what is the price China is asking for to take climate action, and if it is leading the world, are we prepared to make this bargain?
The US relationship with China will probably be the most consequential one of the twenty-first century. Strategic cooperation is desperately needed between Beijing and Washington to avoid devastating global warming. But we are not living in an ideal world when states will put goals of global domination aside for the greater good. However, countries do not need to sing Kumbaya and kiss and make up to achieve reasonable levels of cooperation. If that was the benchmark for international cooperation – it would cease to exist. In 2014, the US and China agreed to a landmark emissions deal that was a precursor to the Paris Agreement while the governments were at odds on a number of issues including cyber-attacks and the South China Sea. Furthermore, green competition between the two powers as they race to decarbonize may be a good thing for the planet, as cold war scholars note, humans would probably never have reached the moon if not for the US Soviet political competition.
This isn’t to say that the only reason President Xi Jinping announced the country’s most ambitious climate pledge to date last year is because it’s just another avenue for the leader to take over the steering wheel of the international system. China’s leaders are genuinely concerned about the effects of climate change worsening droughts, floods and severe storms as much of the country still lacks clean water and arable farmland. Maybe it’s a matter of coincidence that Jinping “ecological civilization” plan aligns with the CCP agenda for global hegemony. Whatever the catalysts may be for ambitious climate action on the part of Chinese leadership, the truth is we desperately need it – but not at any cost. It’s a fine line to avoid a race to the bottom; we must ensure global cooperation and not allow big emitters to have carte blanche regarding human rights atrocities and international norms simply because they agree to take climate action. One thing is for certain, it won’t matter who the global hegemon is when the climate crisis is in full swing and leaders can’t feed or house their citizens.