While parties have made strides in acknowledging the ongoing climate crisis, more work is needed
As Canadians head to the polls in the coming days, the climate issue is dominating the election. This is unsurprising, as the country witnessed the climate crisis hit home this summer: from the heat dome that scorched British Columbia and contributed to more than five hundred deaths, the forest fires in Northeastern Ontario, the drought across the prairies, and the national temperature records being smashed across the country—and this is just within Canada. The reality of the climate catastrophe is evident everywhere this summer. An Angus Reid poll found that 18 per cent of voters put climate and the environment as their Number One issue. Given this, for the first time, Canadians have a buffet of climate policies to choose from, as all the major national political parties have some form of climate action plan.
The Liberals’ $15-billion climate plan calls for a carbon price that will rise to $170 per tonne by 2030. In April 2021, the Liberals increased their emissions reduction target to 40 per cent below 2005 levels and promised to cap oil and gas sector emissions. After this announcement, the party was silent on how they would achieve the further reductions, but on August 29 they announced new regulations, including a zero-emission vehicle mandate by 2030, a clean electricity standard on all sales by 2035, and a declining cap on oil and gas emissions. Mark Jaccard, a Professor at Simon Fraser University and lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, predicts that given these latest policies, it is likely this will achieve the 40 percent target, and these policies will be effective and economically efficient. It goes without saying that Justin Trudeau’s green credentials are easily challenged given the 2018 decision of his government to buy the Trans Mountain pipeline, and the continuous aid that still flows to the fossil fuel industry. This could undermine the Liberals’ efforts to secure a majority.
Climate change being at the forefront of the election puts pressure on Erin O’Toole to communicate a climate plan. The main opposition Conversative party has the least ambitious climate policies. The Conservatives intend to freeze the carbon price at $50 and would go “no further.” Something important to highlight about O’Toole’s plan is that, as Prime Minister, he would not insist that the provinces comply: He told reporters in April that “this is the plan [he will] be presenting to the provinces to partner with them, rather than forcing on the provinces a plan.” This lack of certainty brings into question if the Conservatives are sincere about their climate ambitions and whether they will be implemented if they win the election. The Conservatives’ plan does go beyond carbon pricing and requires automakers to sell more zero emission vehicles and increase the use of renewable natural gas. A glaring hole in the climate plan is that they want to build more pipelines, which is directly at odds with what the latest IPCC report released last month tells us needs to be done to avoid, and mitigate, extra climate change. Another strike is O’Toole’s reluctance to condemn climate disinformation from one of his own incumbent MPs, again leading to questions about how seriously the party takes the climate crisis.
The NDP has an aggressive greenhouse gas (GHG) target and, unlike the Liberals and Conservatives, their plan shows that they have no desire to give a break to trade-exposed industries. Climate modelling reveals that the implicit carbon price of their plans approaches $500. Such a high price on carbon could lead to a major GDP loss of 6.5 per cent by 2030. Jaccard comments that this ambitious target is not only economically inefficient, but it is misleading to suggest that the country could even rapidly eliminate 50 per cent and more of our GHG emissions by 2030. Further NDP plans suggest an investment in transit, energy-efficient homes, and clean energy.
The Greens’ proposal is largely aligned with the NDP’s, and suggests an ambitious 60 per cent target. Jaccard says that “to achieve such a rapid reduction, the carbon price in 2030 must reach $580, an annual jump of $55 needed to trigger premature replacement or retrofit of much of the economy’s equipment, vehicles, buildings and even factories and infrastructure.”* Both the NDP and the Greens are against a pipeline and want to see the end of all oil and gas exploration projects.
Notably, this is the first election in which all parties are making election promises that hinge on addressing the climate crisis. However, acknowledging the problem is the bare minimum. Voters should be wary, and not naïve, to equate parties’ GHG targets with the parties’ levels of climate sincerity. As we know all too well, election promises do not always come to fruition once a party is in office. The policies behind these climate promises matter and are good indicators as to whether targets are realistic and achievable. Climate change underpins many other election issues: pandemics, healthcare, affordable housing, food security—the list goes on. Canada needs a leader that is prepared to implement policies and regulations that can achieve ambitious reduction targets that reflect our Paris commitments, and importantly, a government that ensures the cost to decarbonize is distributed fairly.
*Mark Jaccard, “Assessing climate sincerity in the Canadian 2021 election” (3 September 2021), online:<policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/septembe-2021/assessing-climate-sincerity-in-the-canadian-2021-election>.