A military coup d’état may have just killed Sudan’s democracy before it even got going. With the Prime Minister placed under arrest by military forces, the provisional government shepherding of the country towards democracy may be no more. The toppling of military-strongman Omar al-Bashir in 2019 appears to have been an interlude, rather than a conclusion, for a country that has spent most of the last several decades under military-rule. As democracies around the world appear increasingly under strain from various political and economic pressures, the experiences of fledgling democracies cannot go unnoticed. If we value our democracy, then we cannot afford to sit idly by while a democratic transition dies in Sudan.
Though this may be the latest occurrence of military forces seizing control of a country, it is by no means unique. Earlier this year, Myanmar’s military responded to Aung San Suu Kyi’s electoral victory by toppling her civilian administration and annulling the election results. Canada’s response to Myanmar’s coup d’état is indicative of what can be expected for the response to Sudan’s coup, as sanctions will be leveled against those who organized and participated in overthrowing the government. This is not enough. The imposition of sanctions against individuals involved in coups have not reversed the overthrow of democratic governments or successfully deterred the initiation of coups elsewhere. Instead, Canada should engage in further multilateral efforts with our democratic partners to proactively support fledgling democracies and alleviate the conditions that allow for military coups to occur in the first place.
Civilian-rule can be a fragile thing, even in some of the oldest, most established democracies in the world. In the wake of the attempted Capitol Insurrection, Donald Trump’s former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn espoused a view that had taken hold among QAnon followers; when asked why “what happened in Myanmar can’t happen here?” Flynn stated that there was “no reason, I mean, it should happen here.” While the notion of a military force acting against the government of an established democracy should be unthinkable, both history and current events tell us clearly that it is not. The effects of a democracy being debased do not magically stop at our borders and what happens abroad can affect both Canada and our democratic allies. If we wish to safeguard our democracy at home, then we must actively promote democracy worldwide.
The reality of the situation is that what has happened in Sudan will not be reversed by direct Western action. The legacy of the War in Afghanistan—a tragic waste of twenty years, tens of thousands of lives, and trillions of dollars—leaves no appetite to engage in another military intervention. The fate of Sudan’s democracy lies with its people, thousands upon thousands of whom will turn out to protest the prospect of backsliding into military-rule. For our part, Canada must work with our international partners to support fledgling democracies around the world. With our partners in the European Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the United Nations, we can utilize international collective action to support the fostering of human rights, free media, and an empowered population. By bolstering democratic attitudes and institutions in countries whose democracies are young and vulnerable, we might be able to prevent the democratic transitions of fledgling democracies from failing in the future.