I know what you’re thinking, figure skating in Obiter? I am a hardcore Raptors fan, but when the Olympics comes around, one of my favourite sports to watch other than hockey and short track speed skating is figure skating. For these Olympics, we will take you into each of the four-figure skating disciplines (men’s, women’s, pair’s, and ice dance) and make our predictions on who will achieve Olympic glory.
Men’s – Nathan Chen vs Yuzuru Hanyu
It’s Nathan Chen’s to lose at this point. Ever since his disastrous skate at the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics, where he bombed the short program and finished fifth overall, Nathan Chen of the United States of America has since been almost unbeatable having won the World Championships three times in a row and hasn’t lost a competition since Pyeongchang until 2021 Skate America. Even so, he is almost unbeatable due to his uncanny ability to land multiple quadruple jumps in a single competition with a high level of consistency. He holds the current world records for the free skate and the combined score under the International Skating Union (ISU) system, and for now, it looks like no one can beat him.
But who can take advantage should Nathan falter at the world’s biggest figure skating stage? All eyes are on two-time and defending Olympic Champion Yuzuru Hanyu of Japan who is aiming to be the first man to win three Olympic gold medals since 1928. Yuzuru Hanyu may also have an extra weapon up his sleeve: he will try to be the first man to land a Quadruple Axel, a jump that requires skaters to make four and a half revolutions in the air in less than one second. However, the uncertainty around his physical fitness prevails as recurring injuries have prevented him from entering figure skating competitions. Even when he enters, he has lost to Nathan Chen at every competition since Pyeongchang. We will have to see whether Hanyu can land the elusive jump and whether that will be enough for him to achieve Olympic history.
To round off the rest of the skaters, Shoma Uno of Japan, the defending silver medalist, is a safe bet to earn a medal at these games as well as fellow compatriot Yuma Kagiyama, a surprise medalist at the 2021 World Championships. Vincent Zhou of the United States has the arsenal of quadruple jumps to make a claim for a medal but his inconsistency has created doubts over whether he can do so. Perhaps rising stars Daniel Grassl of Italy, Cha Jun-Hwan of South Korea, Jin Boyang of China, Mark Kondratiuk of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) and fan favourite Jason Brown of the United States could become surprise medalists. It’s anyone’s game for these medals and I am excited to see who will round off the rest of the medalists at this event.
Women – Russian podium sweep and quadruple jump queens
Last Olympics, two women from the ROC (Alina Zagitova and Evgenia Medvedeva) won gold and silver. However, with both medalists retiring from competition the ROC has entered even more technically brilliant young women into the women’s field with all three Russian women able to jump quadruple jumps, a jump not previously seen in women’s figure skating. Kamila Valieva, Anna Scherbakova, and Alexandra Trusova have consistently outscored their international competitors at any competition they enter, and it is not an uncommon sight to see all three of them on the podium. It would be no surprise should these three stand on the podium once more and assert the ROC’s dominance in women’s figure skating, given that they are the only women who will perform quadruple jumps at the Olympic Games, a jump that has historically only been performed by men until now.
However, if there is a chance that any of these women falter at the biggest stage, who can be a surprise medalist? We can turn to Japan’s women as strong contenders for an upset with Wakaba Higuchi, a World silver medalist, and Kaori Sakamoto, Japan’s leading female skater, as strong candidates to take a medal based on their strong results this year. On the international stage, Loena Hendrickx of Belgium has beaten Anna Scherbakova and Alexandra Trusova in the short program at the 2022 European Championships—she may be able to make noise if she skates the program of her life at these Olympics. The Americans Mariah Bell, Alysa Liu, and Karen Chen may threaten the podium if they execute cleanly. Otherwise, Olympic glory for any skaters outside of the ROC seems like a distant dream if the ROC performs as they usually do.
Pairs – Russian dominance, can China win the gold medal?
Russia’s dominance in figure skating also extends to skating pairs where Russian pair skaters are a regular sight on the podium, although not to the same extent as the Russian women. Anastasia Mishina and Aleksandr Galliamov of the ROC are one of the favourite pairs to win, having won a gold medal at last year’s World Championships and having beaten their Russian compatriots on a regular basis since the beginning of last season. The duo to challenge them are the former World Champions and the silver medalists in Pyeongchang Sui Wenjing and Han Cong of China, consistent performers on the world stage and known for their expressive programs, as well as their difficult technical moves. Can Sui Wenjing and Han Cong defeat the Russian pair at their home Olympics and finally achieve Olympic glory? We will have to see to find out.
To round off, the other pairs of skaters who can challenge for a medal include Evgenia Tarasova and Vladimir Morozov of the ROC, who finished in fourth in Pyeongchang, Aleksandra Boikova and Dmitrii Kozlovskii of the ROC, as well as Peng Cheng and Jin Yang of China. Most notable among the entries are Vanessa James and Eric Radford of Canada (Eric Radford a bronze medalist at the Pyeongchang Games for Canada) coming out of retirement to contend for an Olympic medal and Ashley Cain-Gribble and Timothy LeDuc with LeDuc being the first non-binary person to compete at the Winter Olympics.
Ice dance – sit back and watch the drama unfold
I have to say that this year’s ice dance teams are one of the most talented fields I have ever seen, and as such, I have absolutely no idea who will win medals outside of a select few teams. Returning silver medalists from Pyeongchang and heavy favourites for the gold medal Gabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron of France have won every competition they have entered since Pyeongchang but they have yet to face the reigning 2021 World Champions Victoria Sinitsina and Nikita Katsalapov of the ROC in the competition since their World Championship win last year. Both teams are very close together and it will only take a single mistake for one team to take the gold over the other. The teams are so tightly packed that I feel that six to seven teams can legitimately contend for the bronze medal, including American teams Madison Chock/Evan Bates and Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue, the Canadian Worlds bronze medalists Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier, the Italian team Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri, the Spanish team Olivia Smart/Adrian Diaz, Alexandra Stepanova/Ivan Bukin of the ROC, and the British team Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson with all of these teams have performed more or less near the same level as each other. If you want to watch an event where there is almost no clear favourite, this is the event for you!