On 30 December 2023, while getting ready to eat lunch, Raptors fans like myself were treated to a “Woj Bomb.” The Toronto Raptors had traded OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, and Malachi Flynn to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and a 2024 second round pick from the Detroit Pistons. In my opinion, the OG trade has confirmed specific assumptions about the Raptors front office that can be considered risky and unconventional.
After letting Fred VanVleet leave in free agency this past summer and trading a first round pick to the San Antonio Spurs for Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl would be re-signed to a four-year/$78 million this past offseason. In my opinion, Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster made a horrendous decision to let Fred walk for nothing and use precious draft capital to acquire a center whose impact is rather limited. Paying Poeltl in the offseason was even more confusing when it was quite clear there were multiple holes to fill on the roster. Throughout the year, I was lamenting how Fred, OG, and Pascal Siakam must be traded in order for the Raptors to acquire draft capital in order to rebuild around Scottie Barnes. Instead, the Raptors did the opposite. They added at the deadline and signed Dennis Schroder and Jalen McDaniels during the free agency period.
Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. Prior to the OG trade, the Raptors were essentially unwatchable offensively and struggled to a 12-20 record. OG had been on the trade block for months but league sources had discovered that the asking price was in the realm of three first-round picks plus a variety of young players to acquire the elite 3-and-D option. We now know OG did not fetch a single first round pick. The Detroit second rounder will be close to a first round pick, but the real prize for the Raptors was acquiring Immanuel Quickley. IQ is a young point guard who mirrors rising Sixers star Tyrese Maxey. Thus, instead of acquiring draft picks to accumulate young talent out of college, the Raptors have decided to acquire young players who have already shown flashes in the NBA.
This strategy is rather novel and innovative. Generally speaking in North American sports, franchises that have decided they cannot win in their current construction will bottom-out to acquire as favourable a draft pick as possible. Outside of baseball, tanking is the best way to add talent to a roster. The Raptors tanked during their Tampa season and acquired Barnes with the fourth pick of the NBA draft. The San Antonio Spurs famously tanked for one season due to their stars being injured and ended up drafting Tim Duncan. He would lead the team to five championships over his illustrious career. The Spurs just tanked this past season to draft potential all-time great Victor Wembanyama. However, tanking can be a long and arduous process. The Sixers had three straight seasons of less than twenty wins and a fourth season with less than thirty. The NBA literally had to change the draft order rules because the Sixers were consistently taking advantage of the rules to try to acquire the first overall pick.
Through the decade-long reign of Masai Ujiri, the Raptors have been the model for consistent winning and efficient asset management. When fan favorite DeMar DeRozan had to be traded and Dwane Casey fired, Ujiri was unafraid to do so. When everyone thought he would zig, he would end up zagging. Teams like the Raptors have to tank. Despite the constant winning and excellent organizational culture, no one wants to come to Toronto. American media and the occasional American NBA player will describe Toronto as the equivalent of Siberia, Russia. Toronto is simultaneously seen by American players as an amazing city with lots of entertainment and as a literal hell-hole located in the foreign land known as “Canada.” Thus, for the front office, you can either acquire picks via tanking or you can trade for players under contractual control.
This OG trade shows the Raptors front office would value acquiring young talent that has shown flashes of greatness in the NBA via trade, instead of tanking for draft picks that grant the opportunity to draft young talent straight out of college. In my opinion, this means Ujiri is aiming to recapture the state of the franchise when DeMar and Kyle Lowry were leading the team into the playoffs, but never good enough to get over the hump/Lebron. Holding Siakam into his last contractual year with no extension in sight is not a move opposing executives would expect from the Raptors. However, they did the same thing with OG and were able to get what seems to be a good deal.
OG wanted a near-max extension in the range of four-year/$135 million. The Raptors also held him into his last contractual year and ended up getting exactly what they wanted out of the Knicks. Siakam has also stated his desire to sign a max extension with the Raptors. The issue is not that Siakam wants to stay, but rather the reality that IQ and Barnes will be commanding max or near-max contracts in the next two years. RJ Barrett may be a fan favourite due to him being from Mississauga, but he also makes well over $20 million per season. Unless the Raptors want to gut the entire team, a Siakam trade is coming. Whether the Raptors decide to acquire draft picks or young players will be the question. However, it is clear that the Raptors will not be entering a tank era.
Paying young talent will eat at the salary cap. MLSE has been clear that they will not support going beyond the salary cap and into luxury tax. Without the guarantee of a championship team, there is no indication ownership would be willing to go into luxury tax for the purpose of keeping young talent. What makes the draft route so valuable is that rookie contracts are very cost-efficient and specific rules allow for the extension of drafted rookies to have less of an effect on the cap. It will be very interesting to see how the Raptors deal with the financial implications of their strategy. Keep your eyes out for more moves to be made before the 8 February trade deadline.
