When hearing news about North Korean soldiers, most thoughts go to the Designated Military Zone (DMZ) between South and North Korea. However, there have been multiple allegations in October 2024 that North Korean soldiers are prepared to take on combat roles in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
Ukraine alleged that North Korean soldiers are currently being trained in Russia before being sent to the front line. In an address, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that North Korea may be committing 10,000 troops. Ukraine claims that these troops consist of both regular and special forces soldiers. In addition to their own intelligence reports and battlefield claims, Ukraine has released a video of alleged North Korean troops in Russia receiving equipment.
Following these initial allegations, other states have had mixed responses, but South Korea has strongly corroborated and supported these claims. South Korea argues that, per their spy agency, 1,500 troops are already in Russia. Ukraine supported these claims and on October 16, multiple Ukrainian news outlets released reports that 18 North Korean soldiers have gone AWOL (away without leave) in Russia. Russia has denied this and both Russia and North Korea rejected any claims about North Korean troops’ presence in Russia. The Pentagon and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have since supported the claims that North Korean troops are present. While US President Joseph Biden has said this is a dangerous move and risk escalation, neither of the two potential presidential candidates have commented on the matter at the time of writing.
Many may reasonably wonder why, if true, would North Korea be offering up its own soldiers to potentially die in someone else’s war. To answer this, we must look to the strengthened relationship between Russia and North Korea since Russia’s initial invasion three years ago.
This strengthened relationship initially began with the strengthening of economic ties, as Russia sought economic allies in the face of Western sanctions. In 2022, it was claimed that North Korea was providing war fighting materials in the form of artillery shells, which was later proven to be true. North Korea has continued to provide shells and other war materials, with some sources claiming that half of all shells used by Russian forces in 2024 came from North Korea. In these last few years, both countries’ high ranking officials and state leaders have visited the other state.
It has been theorized that Russia is providing technology to North Korea and political support in the United Nations in exchange for North Korea supplying the war-fighting materials that Russia desperately needs. This theory has some merit, as Russia has vetoed a UN resolution regarding sanctions against North Korea. The United States has pointed to North Korean spy satellites and cruise missile advancement as potential results of Russian technological assistance.
Some of the more alarmist analysts have gone as far as to suggest that North Korea is providing troops in exchange for assistance with its nuclear program. However, this claim, like many regarding the current relationship between Russia and North Korea, is speculative and may be a result of intentional misinformation. While the exact details of the two states’ relationship are unknown, it is undeniable that the war has brought them politically, economically, and militarily closer.
Since these states are very close now, it is not unimaginable that North Korea would send troops to take up combat roles in Ukraine. The bigger question is: how will the rest of the world respond if this is true? Well, this question is hard to answer, as I am a student who possesses research skills and a background in politics, not a crystal ball. What I can tell you is that this would be a major escalation and would likely trigger international action. For example, it is likely that South Korea will become more involved in assisting Ukraine in the ongoing conflict.
As of October 21 2024, South Korea has issued a demand to Russia to expel any North Korean troops from within their border. It is likely that Ukraine will not only use this escalation to ask for an increase in Western aid, but also request a loosening of restrictions in how it may use the provided weapons. Predicting what international action will look like is a challenge, many elements relating to this war will be heavily influenced by how the US responds. It is unlikely that the US will take a hard stance currently, as it’s in the midst of an election with candidates that hold vastly different opinions on how involved their country should be in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.