Toronto Maple Leafs’ “Playoff Push”
With the seventy-game mark fast approaching, teams are beginning to be locked in—or out—of the playoffs. The San Jose Sharks had the honour of being the first team with such distinction, being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs on 16 March 2025.
While the Toronto Maple Leafs have not officially taken a playoff spot—no team having done so as I write this—they are locked in for all intents and purposes. A colossal collapse of epic proportions, along with a disgustingly long win streak from a non-playoff team, would be needed for the Leafs to be pushed out. This situation is extremely unlikely. As an aside, with the Bruins being as bad as they are, the Leafs will likely gain sole ownership of the longest playoff streak in the National Hockey League at nine years this season.
Rather than just making the playoffs, the Leafs—or at least their fans—care much more about seeding. The division’s standings are still very much in flux. The Florida Panthers only hold the Atlantic by four points, and the Tampa Bay Lightning and Leafs both have two games in-hand on the Panthers. The Ottawa Senators are four points behind the Leafs and Lightning, and are poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. An eight-point differential in the division certainly makes things more interesting than in seasons past.
A common online sentiment right now is that the Leafs need to win their division so that Florida and Tampa can beat each other up in the first round. Right now, that would mean playing against Ottawa in the first round. I take issue with this sentiment because regardless of who the Leafs play in the first round, they will still have to face one of Florida or Tampa in the second unless some mathematical magic happens where the Leafs end up in a Wild Card spot facing the Washington Capitals. Realistically, this “playoff push” means little to any of these Atlantic teams in the grand scheme of things, especially for the Leafs.
The Washington Capitals are first in the East by quite a lot—ten points. They will almost certainly finish first, matched against the second Wild Card team, which looks likely to be a Metropolitan team (currently the New York Rangers). Whatever Atlantic team wins the division will play the first Wild Card team, which will be any one of Florida, Tampa, Toronto, or Ottawa.
Based on play this season, the Leafs are probably the third best team in this division (as the standings indicate). Auston Matthews has been terrible compared to last year, and offence has been far worse than where it was. Goaltending is the only thing you can say has been definitively better, but goaltending appears to be propping this entire team up. Just look at the goal differential: the Leafs are +13. Florida is +37, Ottawa is +8 and Tampa is at a massive +55 (good for second best in the East). Now, goal differential is not an end-all statistic. Just two years ago, Florida made the Stanley Cup Final with a measly +17 to their first-round matchup Boston Bruins’ +128. Regardless, goal differential gives a good indicator of how strong a team is generally, and Florida and Tampa are better than the Leafs in goals for and against. All this is to say that the Leafs are clearly not the best team in the division. All signs point to them being more in Ottawa’s tier than Tampa’s or Florida’s.
So, I ask, why does everyone care if the Leafs win the division or not? The Leafs have made the second round before, and no one really cared after because they got stomped and nothing came of it. Do we, as fans, really care if the Leafs squeeze into the second round because they got to play Ottawa, only to be destroyed by Tampa or Florida anyway? The Leafs will have to play one of those two regardless. Just look at the Panthers in their Stanley Cup win last year to see how little a team’s seeding determines things.
Florida got the privilege of playing Tampa Bay in the first round last year after winning their division. Then they played the Bruins, then the President’s Trophy-winning Rangers, and finally the Connor McDavid–Leon Draisaitl-led Edmonton Oilers. The point is, you are going to play good teams regardless of whether you win your division or not. Pretend the Leafs do win the division for a second. Currently, they would play Ottawa and then either Florida or Tampa, guaranteed. What about if one of those Florida-based teams slips into the first Wild Card spot? Well, the Leafs would play them anyway and might still play the other in the second round. What I am trying to say is, it does not really matter.
Enjoy this moment of the season because little will change in the grand scheme of things based on where the Leafs end up. We all hope they win it all, but they will have to beat at least one of the Florida teams to get there, and many more good teams. Things like winning the division hardly matter. A fun statistic from the last ten years is that teams that do not win their division are more likely to win the Stanley Cup than teams that do.
It is common in Leafs Land to worry about everything and make a big deal out of seemingly little things. If you break it down, winning the division makes little difference at the end of the day. But Leafs fans, like myself, will worry about it regardless because that is just what being a Leafs fan means.