Forecasting the outcome of Football’s Final Four
AFC Championship — #6 Tennessee Titans vs. #2 Kansas City Chiefs
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are the surprise story of the playoffs. First, they sent the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots packing early with a 20-13 victory in Foxboro — the first time in nine seasons where the Patriots will not be in the AFC Championship.
Then Tennessee managed to out-do themselves by pulling off the upset of the season as they demolished likely MVP Lamar Jackson and the 14-2 Baltimore Ravens by a score of 28-12.
It’s safe to say few outside of those within the Titans organization saw this kind of run coming, especially when they were 3-5 and had just benched Marcus Mariota for Miami cast-off Ryan Tannehill. Now they’re one win away from a Super Bowl appearance.
The primary reason for that is running back Derrick Henry, who has played like a man possessed over the last few weeks. He man-handled the Ravens defence to the tune of 195 all-purpose yards and threw in a passing TD just for good measure.
There’s only two ways to beat this version of Kansas City: you either out-score them in a shootout (as New England did in last year’s AFC Championship), or you slow the game down and try to take the ball out of their hands. Now this isn’t the one-dimensional Kansas City of 2018, their defence has improved immensely under new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. However, the Chiefs do still struggle to contain the run with a 26th-ranked run defence, the worst among all playoff teams, which means Sunday’s game plan will call for a heavy dose of Derrick Henry.
If Tennessee is to win this game, they’re going to need to dominate the time of possession through another all-time performance from Henry by getting scores on long, plodding, clock-killing drives as well as some timely turnovers on defence that leave Mahomes and Kansas City cold and waiting on the sideline.
Kansas City Chiefs
When the Houston Texans stormed out to a 24-0 lead over Kansas City last week, it looked as if the NFL had entered the Twilight Zone, where nothing seemed to make rational sense any more. Then Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs decided to stop messing around and score 42 unanswered points, touchdowns on seven straight possessions, an unprecedented run which the NFL had never seen.
That’s the danger of the Chiefs; no lead is safe. They may have been overshadowed by other teams, but the Chiefs are still explosive as ever. With their gunslinger quarterback, and game-changing playmakers like Travis Kelce and the lightning-quick Tyreek Hill, Kansas City can score at will.
Kansas still managed a top-5 scoring offence in points, yards and passing yards this season without Mahomes for a stretch, and now last year’s MVP is healthy enough to use his legs and bust open defensive man coverage, as seen through his mobility on all three of Travis Kelce’s receiving touchdowns vs. the Texans.
The Titans secondary has improved in the postseason, but they’ve also faced two of the weakest receiver groups in the NFL with New England and Baltimore. Kansas City’s weapons are on a completely different level, and should torch a 24th ranked pass defence that gave up 255 passing yards per game this season, only 12 fewer than Houston, and we all know how that turned out for them.
The thing is to win the Super Bowl, you need to be able to win in more than one fashion, and even though Titans have previously beaten Kansas City this year in Tennessee, they also gave up 32 in that contest, and I don’t know that they’re strong enough on either side of the ball to do it again.
Tannehill has been successful in Tennessee because he only has to manage the game and not central to the offence like he was in Miami. Tennessee can only ride Derrick Henry into the ground for so long, at some point they’re going to need some production through the air. Despite Kansas City’s big initial deficit to Houston, most of that was self-inflicted (dropped passes, blocked punt and muffed punt), and not an indictment of Kansas City’s overall performance
Tennessee is going to put up a good fight; it’s not a fluke they’ve gone this far after playing like one of the best teams in the NFL for the last half of the season, with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. The Titans need to score first and make the Chiefs chase the game by holding on to the ball as long as possible. Ultimately, I still don’t think it will be quite enough to keep pace with Mahomes and the high-tempo Chiefs offence.
Chiefs 24, Titans 21
NFC Championship — #2 Green Bay Packers vs. #1 San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers
After a few years out of the spotlight, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are back and seem poised to challenge for a Super Bowl for the first time since their last postseason appearance in 2016.
The biggest difference this year has been that Green Bay is getting standout performances from their defence. The tandem of Preston and Za’Darius Smith have dominated offensive linemen with 25.5 combined sacks, Blake Martinez continues to rack up tackles and Jaire Alexander has asserted himself as one of the best cornerbacks in the league.
Although he’s not doing it via an aerial assault as he has in previous seasons, Rodgers and the Packers offence is still effective alongside running back Aaron Jones and his go-to target Davante Adams. Jones especially has been a revelation this season, leading the NFL in rushing and total touchdowns (16 and 19 respectively). He was the first Packer to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season since Eddie Lacy in 2014.
If the Packers are to advance to the Super Bowl, they’ll need their dynamic Smith duo to ruin Garoppolo’s day, and employ a balanced offensive attack by having Jones churn up big yardage on the ground against an average San Francisco run defence.
San Francisco 49ers
Last but not least is San Francisco, the most pleasant surprise of this NFL season.
Although they’ve struggled for the better part of the last five seasons, the 49ers might be this year’s best all-around.
San Francisco quietly had the league’s second-best scoring offence under mastermind Kyle Shanahan, putting up 29.9 points per game despite a lack of star talent. Jimmy Garoppolo has been solid in his first full year as starter, tight end George Kittle has become a game-changer, and their three-headed running back committee of Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert have given defences fits, totalling the second-most yards on the ground behind only Baltimore.
GM John Lynch looks like a genius after investing into a pass rush which has terrorized opposing quarterbacks, posting the fifth-most sacks in the NFL including five sacks against Green Bay. A rejuvenated Richard Sherman will be the key for the 49ers and their #1 pass defence since Green Bay’s passing attack has been somewhat limited, ranked 17th. If Sherman can neutralize the Packers’ lone receiving threat in Adams, Green Bay is going to have a tough time moving the ball.
I’d be a fool to count out Aaron Rodgers, but something about the Packers just doesn’t smell right, and it’s not the Wisconsin cheese. They finished the season 13-3 but they didn’t do it convincingly. Eight of their regular season wins were by one score, and their only wins against teams above .500 were Minnesota (twice), and Kansas City without Mahomes.
The Packers and 49ers faced off earlier this season in San Francisco, with the 49ers demolishing Green Bay on Sunday Night Football 37-8, and limiting them to under 200 yards of offence in the process. Expect this one to be a bit closer, but the 49ers have been the superior team all season, and there’s nothing to suggest that Green Bay has significantly improved since these two last met.
49ers 27, Packers 20
In the end, the two best remaining teams will square off in Miami, the league’s most consistent team going up against the NFL’s most dangerous offence.
I’ll be honest, I’m a little biased because I’m staying loyal to my prediction at the beginning of the season, which was a Chiefs/Eagles Super Bowl with Kansas City coming out on top.
San Francisco would potentially match up well against Kansas City; they’re incredibly effective at disrupting passees, the Chiefs’ biggest strength, and their rushing attack has confused defences all year. But the 49ers haven’t gone toe-to-toe with the likes of Mahomes yet, and the Chiefs appear to be hitting their stride at the perfect time.
After lighting up the league in 2018, Kansas City earns its first Super Bowl in 50 years, head coach Andy Reid finally gets the ring he deserves, and Patrick Mahomes ushers in a new era of football in the NFL’s 100th season.
Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs 34, 49ers 24