In 2016, Donald Trump, on his path to becoming the 45th President of the United States, made many significant promises pertaining to the Middle East. Trump boldly stated that he would “utterly destroy ISIS,” “tear up” the Iran nuclear deal, move the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem, and bring peace to the one of the most complex and historically violent regions on Earth. Four years later, his days in the White House are numbered, and it is time to look back and examine Trump’s impact on this geographical region.
The Middle East has been a point of interest for American presidents since the days of Harry S. Truman. The U.S. has always been affixed and entangled with the Middle East due to America’s reliance on foreign oil and the region’s vast supply of it. When Trump took office in 2016, he was just one of many U.S. Presidents whose time in office would require a substantial focus in the region. So how did he do?
Trump was certainly not the worst president when it came to American foreign policy towards the Middle East. One must not forget George W. Bush who, influenced by the neoconservative wing of his party, invaded Iraq in 2003 based on flimsy and possibly even fabricated evidence. The result was a war that, twenty years later, America is still reeling from notwithstanding the trillions of dollars it cost the American taxpayers and the hundreds of the thousands of lives lost. However, with that being said, Trump’s approach to the Middle East was far from perfect.
Pulling Out of the Iran Nuclear Deal (Grade: F)
During his campaign, Trump claimed that he would “tear up” the “horrible” nuclear deal with Iran made by the Obama administration. There was a push from many in the Republican party to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Critics of the deal claimed that it was too soft and did virtually nothing to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. This is primarily due to the fact that the deal allowed Iran to continue to develop its nuclear energy sector, with certain caveats aimed to prevent the development of nuclear weapons. However, Trump’s alternative to the deal has certainly not fared any better in deterring Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Trump’s response was to pull the U.S. out of the deal and, instead, impose a series of harsh economic sanctions. If the aim was to pummel Tehran into submission, the effect was the opposite. Not only did Iran accelerate its nuclear weapons program under the pressure of U.S. sanctions, but tensions between the U.S. and Iran rose steadily. In early 2020, the regional hegemon and the global superpower seemed on the brink of war. This was after a series of back-and-forth altercations that led to America’s killing of Iran’s top general with a drone strike. Iran responded with the bombing of a U.S. military base in Iraq. Despite cooler heads prevailing, the relationship between Iran and the U.S is still as tense as ever.
Trump’s decision to pull America out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 not only accelerated Iran’s pathway to obtaining nuclear weapons, but also destabilized the region. As Joe Biden enters office, he faces a much more hostile Iran than Trump did in 2016.
Israel-Palestine Peace Process (Grade: D)
When Trump took office, as the “master of the deal” he promised a brand-new peace deal between Israel and Palestine, one that would finally bring peace to the region. This was a bold claim, as many American presidents have tried and failed to reach a peace deal between these two countries since Israel’s founding in 1949. Trump fared no better; his deal was rejected by Palestine before the two sides even met. The deal was so heavily in favour of Israel that it is no surprise that Palestine reacted the way it did. Not only did Trump aggravate the Palestinians with his one-sided proposed deal, but he also recognized both West and East Jerusalem, an area contested between Israel and Palestine, as Israel’s capital despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of the world views Tel-Aviv as Israel’s capital. Overall, Trump’s approach to the Israeli-Palestinian relations has achieved nothing other than antagonizing the Palestinians.
The Abraham Accords (Grade: A)
Not all of Trump’s decisions in the Middle East were poor, however, and in fact one of his bright points was the Abraham Accords. The Abraham Accords was a peace deal fostered by the Trump administration between Israel and the Arab Gulf states Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. These accords mark the first peace deal between Israel and an Arab state since Israel’s peace agreement with Jordan in 1994. This move is one that makes the region not only safer but also more economically prosperous by facilitating deeper economic ties. Many experts are even predicting that this deal may be a pivotal step in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Donald Trump played a pivotal role in fostering this peace deal, and it was a win for him.
Beating ISIS (Grade: B)
During his election campaign, Trump constantly boasted that he would “crush” ISIS and “bomb the hell” out of them. Trump did deliver on this promise, as ISIS territory virtually vanished in the four years that Trump was president. It was also under Trump that ISIS’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed by U.S. special operations forces in a raid in Northern Syria. However, as much as Trump would have liked to take credit for this victory, the reality is that these decisions were made by military strategists, many of whom were not even American. Ultimately, ISIS would have been defeated by U.S., Iraqi, and coalition forces regardless of whether Trump was the Commander-in-Chief. Overall, Trump’s policies towards ISIS resulted in its demise, but it would have occurred with or without Trump.
Abandoning the Kurds (Grade: F)
By far the worst decision that Trump made during his presidency with regards to the Middle East was his decision to abandon the Kurdish forces in Northern Syria in October of 2019. The Kurdish forces, who represented the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in Northern Iraq and Syria, had been a key U.S. ally in defeating ISIS. It was the Kurds who did most of the heavy lifting in expelling ISIS from Iraq between 2014 and 2019. However, when the Kurds came under attack from neighbouring Turkey as part of Turkey’s attempt to create a military buffer zone last October, the U.S. abandoned them. U.S. forces had been positioned in Northeastern Syria to protect oil fields in the area to support the Kurds. This presence of U.S. forces was the only thing standing in the way of Turkish forces attacking the Kurds. Trump’s abrupt decision to withdraw U.S. forces from the region resulted in carnage. The Turkish forces immediately began a bombing campaign and a full-fledged assault on the Kurds, destroying towns, killing civilians, and displacing over three hundred thousand people. This was an outcome that could have been completely avoided had Trump not removed his troops so quickly and without any regard for America’s Kurdish allies. The move’s ramifications transcended the region as Trump indicated to America’s allies around the world that it would quit on them at the drop of a hat. Much of America’s strength in the world stems from its strong partnerships and alliances, and Trump’s decision to undermine the Kurds signaled to the rest of the world that America could not be trusted as an ally.
Overall Grade: D
Overall, Trump’s impact in the region gets a barely passing grade. Although Trump made some progress in bringing some stability and peace to the region, chiefly through the Abraham Accords, it is evident that the Middle East is a far less stable and peaceful place than it was when he entered office. America now faces a region dominated by an increasingly hostile Iran and power vacuums in areas that America abandoned. Finally, Trump indicated to America’s allies around the globe that it will abandon them with little regard for their interests and human life. As Joe Biden prepares to become the 46th President of the United States, he must seek to repair the damage that Trump has done in the region, and it is a daunting task.