Two issues ago, I wrote in Obiter Dicta about the unprecedented risk of nuclear Armageddon. In this issue, I want to talk about something slightly more insidious and not quite as sexy – the impending end of humanity through reproductive failure. Many readers will be familiar with P.D. James’ timeless novel “Children of Men” in which reproductive failure in human males leads to global chaos. Unfortunately, life imitates art and there is a growing concern that by 2045, human sperm counts will have dropped to 0 in most men. That’s right: zip, nada, zilch – at least in Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand. To reiterate, there is currently concern that as soon as 2045, most men will no longer be able to reproduce. No more babies means no more future for human civilization.
In her book “Count Down” Dr. Shanna Swan gives us a grim view of the future. For the past few decades, sperm counts have been plummeting. By some calculations, in 1973, human males had at least twice as much sperm per ml of semen as they do today. Sperm counts aren’t the only thing shrinking either; male human genitals are shrinking at an alarming rate. However, not all of the experts agree on the apocalyptic predictions. Some point out that in Africa, South America and Asia, sperm rates are falling, but much more slowly. Even in North America, the average sperm count is still “normal.” Women are not immune either, earlier puberties and dropping fertility rates in some parts of the world are also cause for concern.
Even if the conservative estimates are right, and the situation is not as dire as Dr. Swan would have us believe, we have a problem. The decline isn’t leveling out. Even if the decline is slow, environmental and life-style factors may be to blame, and if they are, an increasing westernization of global lifestyles may accelerate the decline in areas where it is currently slow.
What’s causing this? Probably plastic, but other chemicals might play a part. In particular, there is evidence that PFAS, found in all kinds of products, are having a negative effect on sperm. Unfortunately, these chemicals are unbelievably resistant to breakdown and remain in the human body and the environment for a very long time. They also get into water supplies, so even if you avoid them entirely, it may not be enough. Other compounds in plastics might also be having some effect. Chemicals that have been linked to reproductive problems are present in shampoos, food containers, and countless other innocuous products that we use. These plastics are ending up in our bodies. 93% of adults have measurable amounts of BPA in their urine. Other lifestyle factors like diet and smoking can affect sperm counts and quality.
Plastic contamination and pollution are a problem at an unbelievable scale. At least 8 million tons of plastic are added to the ocean every single year. Remember, only a tiny amount of it is ever removed. Despite growing concern, the situation is worsening. More plastic is made year on year and more of it is ending up in our environment. 40% of plastic is used just for packaging. 1/3rd of all waste generated annually is plastic. By 2050, there will be more plastic by weight in the oceans than fish. And even if reproduction isn’t on your mind, we should be concerned about our bodily health and the impacts that plastics are having on it.
The Canadian government has promised to ban certain types of single use plastic like straws and bags, but haven’t committed to big polluters like water bottles and coffee cups. Plastics are ending up in landfills, lakes, and rivers and are polluting our food and our water. Plastic pollution is an existential threat to the human species; we need to take drastic action now.