To say that 2016 was an eventful year for the world of global affairs would be an understatement. The US election and the Brexit vote gave serious shivers to the world. ISIS continued to terrorise the globe from Istanbul to Orlando. Europe struggled with its migrant crisis and countries from France to Hungary saw the rise of the far-right. With the visit of the US President and death of its revolutionary leader, Cuba made headlines twice this year. The Philippines’ election and Rodrigo Duterte’s speeches left the global political and business elite wondering about the future of South-China Sea. OPEC had yet another complicated year full of negotiations about oil production and domestic policies in attempts to diversify their economy. The Paris Climate Agreement became the fastest UN treaty to be entered into force.
The list of course is a never-ending one, but reflecting on even these few events can show the footprint of 2016, one which will significantly shape the course of the international community over the upcoming years. 2017 marks a new dawn. The new year is commonly considered to be a time to right wrongs, improve weaknesses and make amends; it is perhaps best described by Benjamin Franklin as a time to “be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man.”
These developments are interesting to keep an eye upon in 2017. The discussion of course is not meant to be an exhaustive one, but rather intended to provide a contextual approach of the various themes that will dominate the global-affairs headlines in the present year
North America
Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump is top of the list. The change in the US government will have important ramifications for both the domestic and foreign policy. Within the region, important policy considerations relate to the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Mexican wall and deportation of illegal immigrants. What will it mean for trade deals, the recent hiccups with Israel, Japan and Philippines, and the future of the Iran deal? Will the world see a conclusion of the Cold War or a cold peace, as Trump and Putin find an ally in each other? As far as the US and world politics is concerned, 2017 will undoubtedly be a be a loaded year.
Considering the “promises” made by the Trump campaign, a high level of tension between Mexico and the US may seem inevitable. Mexico knows better than to make an enemy of the US; however, it may take more than diplomacy to outcast rhetoric and balance competing strategic interests of both nations as well as within nations. The fate of NAFTA, the free-trade agreement which spans across the largest geographic region, may see major changes in the upcoming few months. The impact of the free trade agreement remains controversial and so do the predictions entertaining its conclusion.
Canada swore in the first female Minster of Foreign Affairs in twenty-four years. While Canada has enjoyed a good year on the international stage, Chrystia Freeland’s challenges will be tackling the diplomatic relationships with the US, China and Russia.
Canada’s economic team is looking towards a busy year ahead of investor friendly reforms. To encourage foreign direct investment, Canada is set to introduce several measures, including establishing an infrastructure bank. The competition, however, will be stiff, as countries like Britain, China, Germany, and the United States are already much in the game.
The Middle East
They Syrian crisis continues into its sixth year of fighting. The power play and influence of Turkey, Iran, Russia, and the US, as well as the wider strategic interests of other players in the region and beyond, are unlikely to diminish any time soon. Unless the cease-fire holds up and gives way to meaningful talks, the situation will only deteriorate.
Conflict between Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition has pushed Yemen into a huge catastrophe, unfortunately one which will continue into 2017.
The Israeli-Palestinian issue is still on the world stage. Given the recent developments in the United Nations Security Council over the settlements in the West Bank, the historic conflict will undoubtedly see more controversial developments in the upcoming year.
The oil producing countries have sought a diversification of their economy after another year of low oil prices, a move which may allow these countries to escape from the “Dutch Disease.”
Istanbul, a destination previously described as the perfect holiday retreat, has seen a very unfortunate 2016. In addition to the spillover from the conflict in Syria and Iraq, Tukey also faces a significant spiraling threat with the Kurdish Worker’s party. A country with huge strategic interests within the region, politically polarized, weakening economic conditions as well as weakening alliances, and desperate to improve its international image, Turkey faces a very challenging 2017.
Europe
Reflecting on the developments of the past year: Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, the attack in Nice, the coup in Turkey and Italy’s referendum: the default position is that the EU will be in a very unstable position in 2017.
This year marks an election year for France, Germany, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria, all of which could lead to an unexpected populist victor. Considering the trends in the UK and the US, everyone has a right to be skeptical about every predictive analysis. A Marine Le Pen victory, though unlikely, could trigger a bigger crisis for the EU. Foreign policy would be a key aspect on these election as trade, terrorism, and immigration appear to be the most pressing issues.
As Trump focusses on defining a new world order, Europe may look East towards China in an attempt to defend the global trading system and environmental agreements.
Brexit and the future of the European Union are still uncertain as business as usual seems to have continued after referendum in July, 2016. With attacks in France, Belgium and Germany, security concerns also loom large for continental Europe. Considering the aforementioned section on the Middle East, the refugee crisis will likely continue, creating both domestic drama for the countries as well as ethical dilemmas, and with the upcoming election, many countries from Austria to France have already seen a rise of the far-right.
With the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker’s admission that the European project now faces an “existential threat,” 2017 can prove to be a decisive year.
Asia-Pacific
A series of visits by state officials, elections, and scandals dominated the headlines of the region. Taiwan, the only democracy in the Chinese speaking world, elected its first female president; Duterte took the stage in the region by winning the Philippines election, followed by some controversial comments; Malaysia and South Korea suffered from political scandals; elections in Hong Kong sent strong signals to China; and the Rohingya refugee crisis in Myanmar continued to make the headlines.
President-Elect Donald Trump has promised to withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Both the trade agreement as well as Trump’s promise remain controversial. It still remains to be seen how the TPP will affect the other competing trade deals in the region such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
The historically strong US-Philippines relationship has seen friction with President Deurte’s election in the Philippines. Therefore, 2017 will be a decisive year concerning US influence in the region, re-alliances in East Asia, and the future of the South-China sea. Another rocket launch by North Korea received global condemnation by the international community.
The China corridor is the new development in the Western part of the region. Through the Chinese-led Silk Route Economic belt (One Belt, One Road) initiative, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, China, and India have been trying to establish a political as well as an economic system for cooperation. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, which was termed a new age silk route, will also undergo interesting developments in the year.
Latin America
2016 presented a very mixed year for the Latin American nations. Some nations saw new governments being sworn in while others were impeached; some economies struggled thorough crises while some recovered; some made leaps in diplomatic ties while others broke of existing relations. The US president visited Cuba for the first time in seventy-eight years, the Brazilian president was impeached, the Colombian president won the Nobel peace prize and Haiti finally elected a president.
Domestically, a political move towards the right seems to be on the rise in the region. The ideological shift has threatened Mexico, weakened Peronists in Argentina, toppled the Worker’s party in Brazil, and has seen problems for leftist or left-leaning leaders in Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Venezuela.
The economic challenges of the region continue into the new year. With a rapid pace of currency depreciation and higher sovereign spreads, many countries in the region fear an unstable 2017. Oil prices have had a very direct impact on Columbia and Venezuela, with ripples felt in the neighboring countries. Commodities such as petroleum, copper, gold, soybeans, and agricultural products continue to be important for the region’s economies. Over the past few years, there has been an increase in trade and investments between Latin America and the Middle East. The trend is likely to continue as many of the Latin American economies undergo a structural reform while the Gulf nations seek to diversify their economies. After President Obama’s visit to Cuba earlier this year, it is likely that the relations between the two countries will improve in 2017. This would hopefully make way for trade tourism not only with Cuba but with rest of the island region.
Africa
A continent which often dominates the newspaper headlines for conflict saw another unfortunate year in 2016, and many of the trends are likely to continue in the present year. Conflicts across the Greater Sahel and Lake Chad Basin have led to massive human suffering over the past few years. Countries such as Niger, Burkina Faso, and Côte d’Ivoire will unfortunately continue to face terrorist threats in Central Sahel. Security forces of Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad have stepped up their fight against Boko Haram insurgency. The world’s youngest country, South Sudan, is still riddled with conflict, one which will continue in 2017.
The failure of commodity prices to rise, considering the economic slowdown in the emerging market, made 2016 a struggling year for many African economies. These macro trends combined with the diverse dynamics of the continent’s different countries meant different outcomes for different countries; Nigeria, the most populous country of the region, went into recession in 2016, whereas South Africa, which made global headlines in December 2015 for changing three finance ministers, experienced a 0.2 percent growth in the third quarter.
However, the continent hosts four of the fastest ten growing economies in the world. Moreover, many countries in the region have taken steps diversify their economies, which when combined with a growing startup-culture may have a promising future of many of the economies, including those of Nigeria, Angola, South Africa, the Congo, Ethiopia, and Senegal.